La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Santander (62%), while victory for Rayo Vallecano was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes. Before kick-off, our model gave Rayo Vallecano a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Racing Santander 62%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (10.8%), followed by 0-2 (10.8%) and 1-1 (9.9%).
Rayo Vallecano have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Racing Santander have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Racing Santander therefore arrive in far better shape than Rayo Vallecano. On average Rayo Vallecano score 1.40 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Racing Santander score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Rayo Vallecano sit 18th with 1 points from 3 games, Racing Santander 10th with 4 points from 3. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Rayo Vallecano have averaged 1.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.63 for Racing Santander.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Racing Santander and 1 draw. Rayo Vallecano out or doubtful: A. Batalla, M. Kumbulla, Luiz Felipe, I. Palazon and J. Vertrouwd. Racing Santander: I. Luque and A. Martin. In double chance terms, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" stands at 38%, "Racing Santander or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rayo Vallecano – Racing Santander. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Racing Santander | 10.8% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-2 Racing Santander | 10.8% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Racing Santander | 9.9% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Racing Santander | 9.9% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Racing Santander | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.92 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.00 for Racing Santander, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Racing Santander in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 0.92 |
| Racing Santander expected goals | 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 14% |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
Racing Santander
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Alaves · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sporting Gijon · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 18 | 1 | 3 |
| Racing Santander | 10 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Racing Santander and 1 draw.
Out and doubtful
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batalla (out)
- M. Kumbulla (out)
- Luiz Felipe (out)
- I. Palazon (out)
- J. Vertrouwd (out)
Racing Santander
- I. Luque (out)
- A. Martin (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoSep 3, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real MadridSep 4, 2026
- Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico MadridSep 5, 2026
- Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSep 5, 2026
- Valencia 0-5 BarcelonaSep 6, 2026
- Alaves 5-2 OsasunaSep 6, 2026
- Malaga 0-0 LevanteSep 6, 2026
- Espanyol 1-1 SevillaSep 6, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Celta VigoSep 7, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real SociedadSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rayo Vallecano a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Racing Santander 62%. Racing Santander are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
0-1 (10.8%), followed by 0-2 (10.8%), 1-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-3 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
The probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander score is 52%. Rayo Vallecano have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Racing Santander 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?
The model expects 2.92 goals (0.92 for Rayo Vallecano, 2.00 for Racing Santander). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 4. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander in?
Rayo Vallecano: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 13 conceded). Racing Santander: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Racing Santander and 1 draw.
What was the Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Santander (62%), while victory for Rayo Vallecano was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.92 for Rayo Vallecano, 2.00 for Racing Santander) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- All Racing Santander predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology