La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Villarreal (41%), while victory for Deportivo La Coruna was rated at only 33%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna was played on Saturday, September 5, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 4). Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal. Before kick-off, our model gave Villarreal a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo La Coruna 33%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo La Coruna have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Villarreal score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Deportivo La Coruna score 1.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Villarreal sit 15th with 2 points from 3 games, Deportivo La Coruna 8th with 5 points from 3. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Villarreal have averaged 1.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.96 for Deportivo La Coruna.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Villarreal, 1 for Deportivo La Coruna and 3 draws. Villarreal out or doubtful: J. Foyth. Deportivo La Coruna: A. Altimira, N. Carrillo, M. Casado and A. Traore. In double chance terms, "Villarreal or draw" stands at 67%, "Deportivo La Coruna or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruna. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna | 12.2% |
| Villarreal 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna | 9.7% |
| Villarreal 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna | 8.8% |
| Villarreal 0-1 Deportivo La Coruna | 8.5% |
| Villarreal 1-2 Deportivo La Coruna | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.70 goals in total (1.44 for Villarreal, 1.26 for Deportivo La Coruna): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 55%. Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Deportivo La Coruna in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.44 |
| Deportivo La Coruna expected goals | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 28% |
| Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Deportivo La Coruna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Madrid · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Genoa · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 5 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Villarreal, 1 for Deportivo La Coruna and 3 draws.
Out and doubtful
Villarreal
- J. Foyth (out)
Deportivo La Coruna
- A. Altimira (out)
- N. Carrillo (out)
- M. Casado (out)
- A. Traore (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoSep 3, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real MadridSep 4, 2026
- Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico MadridSep 5, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderSep 5, 2026
- Valencia 0-5 BarcelonaSep 6, 2026
- Alaves 5-2 OsasunaSep 6, 2026
- Malaga 0-0 LevanteSep 6, 2026
- Espanyol 1-1 SevillaSep 6, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Celta VigoSep 7, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real SociedadSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Villarreal a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo La Coruna 33%. Villarreal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.8%), 0-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The probability that both Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna score is 55%. Villarreal have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo La Coruna 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.44 for Villarreal, 1.26 for Deportivo La Coruna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 4. Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal.
What form are Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna in?
Villarreal: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Deportivo La Coruna: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Villarreal, 1 for Deportivo La Coruna and 3 draws.
What was the Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Villarreal (41%), while victory for Deportivo La Coruna was rated at only 33%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Villarreal, 1.26 for Deportivo La Coruna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Villarreal predictions
- All Deportivo La Coruna predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology