La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Madrid (44%), while victory for Athletic Club was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid met on Saturday, September 5, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Before kick-off, our model gave Athletic Club a 28% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico Madrid 44%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.1%) and 0-0 (10.3%).
Athletic Club have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Atletico Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Athletic Club. On average Athletic Club score 0.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Athletic Club sit 13th with 3 points from 3 games, Atletico Madrid 4th with 7 points from 3. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Athletic Club have averaged 1.43 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.88 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club (Apr 25, 2026). Athletic Club out or doubtful: P. Canales, A. Djalo, U. Egiluz, N. Serrano and D. Vivian. Atletico Madrid: A. Sorloth and O. Vargas. In double chance terms, "Athletic Club or draw" stands at 56%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Athletic Club – Atletico Madrid. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club 0-1 Atletico Madrid | 13.3% |
| Athletic Club 1-1 Atletico Madrid | 13.1% |
| Athletic Club 0-0 Atletico Madrid | 10.3% |
| Athletic Club 1-0 Atletico Madrid | 10.1% |
| Athletic Club 0-2 Atletico Madrid | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.98 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.29 for Atletico Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Few goals are expected here. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club expected goals | 0.98 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 28% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| Atletico Madrid | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Athletic Club
- P. Canales (out)
- A. Djalo (out)
- U. Egiluz (out)
- N. Serrano (out)
- D. Vivian (out)
Atletico Madrid
- A. Sorloth (out)
- O. Vargas (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoSep 3, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 Real MadridSep 4, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderSep 5, 2026
- Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CorunaSep 5, 2026
- Valencia 0-5 BarcelonaSep 6, 2026
- Alaves 5-2 OsasunaSep 6, 2026
- Malaga 0-0 LevanteSep 6, 2026
- Espanyol 1-1 SevillaSep 6, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Celta VigoSep 7, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real SociedadSep 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Athletic Club a 28% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico Madrid 44%. Atletico Madrid are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
0-1 (13.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%) and 0-2 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid score is 45%. Athletic Club have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 2.27 goals (0.98 for Athletic Club, 1.29 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid played?
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 4. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao.
What form are Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid in?
Athletic Club: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club (Apr 25, 2026).
What was the Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Atletico Madrid (44%), while victory for Athletic Club was rated at only 28%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.98 for Athletic Club, 1.29 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Athletic Club predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology