La Liga· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Alaves vs Valencia: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Alaves 0-1 Valencia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alaves (54%), while victory for Valencia was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
Match analysis
Alaves and Valencia met on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Before kick-off, our model gave Alaves a 54% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Valencia 18%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (14.2%), followed by 3-0 (14.0%) and 4-0 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alaves have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Valencia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 10. Alaves therefore arrive in far better shape than Valencia. On average Alaves score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Valencia score 0.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Alaves sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games, Valencia 20th with 1 points from 5. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Alaves have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.94 for Valencia.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Valencia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Valencia 3-2 Alaves (Mar 8, 2026). Alaves out or doubtful: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez and A. Manas. Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier and D. Lopez. In double chance terms, "Alaves or draw" stands at 82%, "Valencia or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alaves – Valencia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves 2-0 Valencia | 14.2% |
| Alaves 3-0 Valencia | 14.0% |
| Alaves 4-0 Valencia | 10.3% |
| Alaves 1-0 Valencia | 9.7% |
| Alaves 2-1 Valencia | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.95 expected goals for Alaves and 0.47 for Valencia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 66% and "both teams to score" at 36%. Goals look likely in this one. Alaves keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Valencia in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alaves expected goals | 2.95 |
| Valencia expected goals | 0.47 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 63% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
Valencia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Valencia | 20 | 1 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Valencia 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Valencia | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Alaves
- F. Garces (out)
- M. Rodriguez (out)
- A. Manas (out)
Valencia
- S. Canos (out)
- J. Copete (out)
- M. Diakhaby (out)
- D. Foulquier (out)
- D. Lopez (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSep 13, 2026
- Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico MadridSep 13, 2026
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolSep 15, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real MadridSep 15, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 4-0 OsasunaSep 16, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 SevillaSep 16, 2026
- Barcelona 7-2 Racing SantanderSep 16, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 GetafeSep 17, 2026
- Malaga 1-3 VillarrealSep 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alaves vs Valencia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Alaves a 54% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Valencia 18%. Alaves are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Alaves vs Valencia?
2-0 (14.2%), followed by 3-0 (14.0%), 4-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
The probability that both Alaves and Valencia score is 36%. Alaves have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Valencia 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model expects 3.42 goals (2.95 for Alaves, 0.47 for Valencia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Alaves vs Valencia played?
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 6. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
What form are Alaves and Valencia in?
Alaves: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Valencia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Valencia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Valencia 3-2 Alaves (Mar 8, 2026).
What was the Alaves vs Valencia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Alaves 0-1 Valencia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alaves (54%), while victory for Valencia was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): missed.
How is the Alaves vs Valencia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.95 for Alaves, 0.47 for Valencia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.