La Liga· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna was played on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 6). Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Madrid a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Osasuna 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Osasuna have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atletico Madrid score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Osasuna score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 5th with 10 points from 5 games, Osasuna 11th with 7 points from 5. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.14 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.53 for Osasuna.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 0 for Osasuna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid (May 12, 2026). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: J. Alvarez, P. Barrios, A. Sorloth and S. Esteban. Osasuna: M. Gomez, J. Herrando, A. Oroz and V. Rosier. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 71%, "Osasuna or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Osasuna. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 1-1 Osasuna | 12.1% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | 10.6% |
| Atletico Madrid 2-1 Osasuna | 9.2% |
| Atletico Madrid 2-0 Osasuna | 8.1% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-1 Osasuna | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.67 goals in total (1.53 for Atletico Madrid, 1.14 for Osasuna): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 53%. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Osasuna in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.53 |
| Osasuna expected goals | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 32% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
Osasuna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Osasuna | 11 | 7 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Madrid
- J. Alvarez (out)
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
- S. Esteban (out)
Osasuna
- M. Gomez (out)
- J. Herrando (out)
- A. Oroz (out)
- V. Rosier (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolSep 15, 2026
- Alaves 0-1 ValenciaSep 15, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real MadridSep 15, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 SevillaSep 16, 2026
- Barcelona 7-2 Racing SantanderSep 16, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 GetafeSep 17, 2026
- Malaga 1-3 VillarrealSep 17, 2026
- Espanyol 1-3 ElcheSep 18, 2026
- Osasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoSep 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Madrid a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Osasuna 29%. Atletico Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.1%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Osasuna score is 53%. Atletico Madrid have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Osasuna 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.53 for Atletico Madrid, 1.14 for Osasuna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna played?
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 6. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in?
Atletico Madrid: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Osasuna: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 0 for Osasuna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid (May 12, 2026).
What was the Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Atletico Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (46%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Atletico Madrid, 1.14 for Osasuna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- All Osasuna predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology