La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Osasuna (58%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (10.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
Match analysis
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. Before kick-off, our model gave Osasuna a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 20%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Osasuna have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Osasuna score 1.00 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Rayo Vallecano score 1.80 and concede 2.60. In the table, Osasuna sit 13th with 7 points from 6 games, Rayo Vallecano 11th with 7 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Osasuna have averaged 1.74 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.17 for Rayo Vallecano.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna (Jan 24, 2026). Osasuna out or doubtful: M. Gomez, J. Herrando, A. Oroz and V. Rosier. Rayo Vallecano: A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, I. Palazon and J. Vertrouwd. In double chance terms, "Osasuna or draw" stands at 80%, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 78%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | 10.3% |
| Osasuna 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | 9.9% |
| Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | 9.7% |
| Osasuna 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | 9.4% |
| Osasuna 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.93 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.06 for Rayo Vallecano, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 58% and "both teams to score" at 56%. Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Rayo Vallecano in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Osasuna expected goals | 1.93 |
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 35% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Osasuna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 7 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Osasuna 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Osasuna
- M. Gomez (out)
- J. Herrando (out)
- A. Oroz (out)
- V. Rosier (out)
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batalla (out)
- Luiz Felipe (out)
- R. Nteka (out)
- I. Palazon (out)
- J. Vertrouwd (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Malaga 1-3 VillarrealSep 17, 2026
- Espanyol 1-3 ElcheSep 18, 2026
- Athletic Club 0-0 AlavesSep 19, 2026
- Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderSep 19, 2026
- Sevilla 1-3 BarcelonaSep 19, 2026
- Getafe 1-0 MalagaSep 20, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real MadridSep 20, 2026
- Villarreal 3-1 LevanteSep 20, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real BetisSep 20, 2026
- Valencia 2-3 Real SociedadSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Osasuna a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 20%. Osasuna are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
1-1 (10.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 3-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
The probability that both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano score is 56%. Osasuna have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rayo Vallecano 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model expects 2.99 goals (1.93 for Osasuna, 1.06 for Rayo Vallecano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 7. Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona.
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in?
Osasuna: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 12 conceded). Rayo Vallecano: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna (Jan 24, 2026).
What was the Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Osasuna (58%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (10.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (56%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
How is the Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.93 for Osasuna, 1.06 for Rayo Vallecano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Osasuna predictions
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology