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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid2 – 1Real MadridReal Madrid

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-2

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Madrid (71%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (79%): correct.

Match analysis

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Madrid a 14% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Real Madrid 71%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (8.0%) and 0-2 (6.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Madrid score 2.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 4th with 13 points from 6 games, Real Madrid 2nd with 15 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.04 for Real Madrid.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 2 for Real Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid (Mar 22, 2026). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: J. Alvarez, P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. Real Madrid: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 29%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 86% and "no draw" at 85%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

14%
Atletico Madrid (Win)
15%
Draw
71%
Real Madrid (Win)

Double chance

29%
Atletico Madrid or draw
86%
Real Madrid or draw
85%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 35% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid8.2%
Atletico Madrid 1-3 Real Madrid8.0%
Atletico Madrid 0-2 Real Madrid6.4%
Atletico Madrid 0-3 Real Madrid6.2%
Atletico Madrid 1-4 Real Madrid5.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.28 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 2.93 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 79% and "both teams to score" at 68%. Goals look likely in this one. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 28%.

Probability
Atletico Madrid expected goals1.28
Real Madrid expected goals2.93
Both teams to score68%
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals79%
Over 3.5 goals61%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet5%
Real Madrid clean sheet28%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Atletico Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Sep 16, 2026Osasuna · La Liga4-0W
Sep 13, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga3-0W
Sep 9, 2026Liverpool · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Sep 5, 2026Athletic Club · La Liga0-3L
Aug 29, 2026Sevilla · La Liga3-1W

Real Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Sep 15, 2026Elche · La Liga3-2W
Sep 12, 2026Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4-1W
Sep 8, 2026Inter · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Sep 4, 2026Real Betis · La Liga0-1L
Aug 30, 2026Malaga · La Liga4-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atletico Madrid4136
Real Madrid2156

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Jan 8, 2026Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real MadridSpanish Super Cup
Sep 27, 2025Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real MadridLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Atletico Madrid

  • J. Alvarez (out)
  • P. Barrios (out)
  • A. Sorloth (out)

Real Madrid

  • Eder Militao (out)
  • F. Mendy (out)
  • Rodrygo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Madrid a 14% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Real Madrid 71%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

1-2 (8.2%), followed by 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (6.4%), 0-3 (6.2%) and 1-4 (5.8%).

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid score is 68%. Atletico Madrid have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 28%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 4.21 goals (1.28 for Atletico Madrid, 2.93 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 79%, over 3.5 goals 61%.

When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid played?

Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 7. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.

What form are Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in?

Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 6 conceded). Real Madrid: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 2 for Real Madrid and 0 draws. The most recent ended Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid (Mar 22, 2026).

What was the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Madrid (71%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (79%): correct.

How is the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.28 for Atletico Madrid, 2.93 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained