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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)

Athletic Club vs Alaves: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

Athletic ClubAthletic Club0 – 0AlavesAlaves

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (39%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): missed.

Match analysis

Athletic Club and Alaves met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Before kick-off, our model gave Athletic Club a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alaves 36%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-0 (8.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Alaves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Athletic Club score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Alaves score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Athletic Club sit 8th with 7 points from 5 games, Alaves 6th with 10 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Athletic Club have averaged 1.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.41 for Alaves.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club (May 2, 2026). Athletic Club out or doubtful: P. Canales, U. Egiluz and D. Vivian. Alaves: F. Garces, A. Manas and M. Rodriguez. In double chance terms, "Athletic Club or draw" stands at 64%, "Alaves or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

39%
Athletic Club (Win)
25%
Draw
36%
Alaves (Win)

Double chance

64%
Athletic Club or draw
61%
Alaves or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Athletic Club – Alaves. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Athletic Club 1-1 Alaves11.8%
Athletic Club 2-1 Alaves8.6%
Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves8.6%
Athletic Club 1-2 Alaves8.1%
Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.46 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.37 for Alaves, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Alaves in 23%.

Probability
Athletic Club expected goals1.46
Alaves expected goals1.37
Both teams to score57%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Athletic Club clean sheet25%
Alaves clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Athletic Club

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Elche · La Liga1-1D
Sep 5, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga3-0W
Aug 30, 2026Celta Vigo · La Liga2-0W
Aug 27, 2026Barcelona · La Liga0-2L
Aug 22, 2026Sevilla · La Liga1-3L

Alaves

DateOpponentScore
Sep 15, 2026Valencia · La Liga0-1L
Sep 12, 2026Racing Santander · La Liga1-2L
Sep 6, 2026Osasuna · La Liga5-2W
Aug 28, 2026Villarreal · La Liga1-0W
Aug 20, 2026Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Athletic Club875
Alaves6106

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 2, 2026Alaves 2-4 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Sep 13, 2025Athletic Club 0-1 AlavesLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Athletic Club

  • P. Canales (out)
  • U. Egiluz (out)
  • D. Vivian (out)

Alaves

  • F. Garces (out)
  • A. Manas (out)
  • M. Rodriguez (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Athletic Club a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alaves 36%. Athletic Club are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Athletic Club vs Alaves?

1-1 (11.8%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%), 1-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-1 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?

The probability that both Athletic Club and Alaves score is 57%. Athletic Club have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alaves 23%.

How many goals should we expect in Athletic Club vs Alaves?

The model expects 2.83 goals (1.46 for Athletic Club, 1.37 for Alaves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.

When and where is Athletic Club vs Alaves played?

Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 7. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao.

What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in?

Athletic Club: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Alaves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club (May 2, 2026).

What was the Athletic Club vs Alaves result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (39%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): missed.

How is the Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for Athletic Club, 1.37 for Alaves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained