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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Valencia vs Real Sociedad: 2-3 result and AI prediction review

ValenciaValencia2 – 3Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Sociedad was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

Match analysis

Valencia vs Real Sociedad was played on Sunday, September 20, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 7). Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia. Before kick-off, our model gave Valencia a 26% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Real Sociedad 44%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (15.6%), ahead of 0-0 (13.1%) and 1-1 (13.1%).

Valencia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Real Sociedad. On average Valencia score 0.40 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Valencia sit 19th with 4 points from 6 games, Real Sociedad 13th with 7 points from 6. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Valencia have averaged 0.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.04 for Real Sociedad.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Valencia, 0 for Real Sociedad and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia (May 17, 2026). Valencia out or doubtful: S. Canos, J. Copete, M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier and D. Lopez. Real Sociedad: J. Aramburu, A. Odriozola and I. Zubeldia. In double chance terms, "Valencia or draw" stands at 56%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 70%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

26%
Valencia (Win)
30%
Draw
44%
Real Sociedad (Win)

Double chance

56%
Valencia or draw
74%
Real Sociedad or draw
70%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Valencia – Real Sociedad. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Valencia 0-1 Real Sociedad15.6%
Valencia 0-0 Real Sociedad13.1%
Valencia 1-1 Real Sociedad13.1%
Valencia 1-0 Real Sociedad11.0%
Valencia 0-2 Real Sociedad9.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.03 goals in total (0.84 for Valencia, 1.19 for Real Sociedad): over 2.5 goals has a 33% probability and both teams to score 40%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Valencia keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 43%.

Probability
Valencia expected goals0.84
Real Sociedad expected goals1.19
Both teams to score40%
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals33%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Valencia clean sheet30%
Real Sociedad clean sheet43%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Valencia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 15, 2026Alaves · La Liga1-0W
Sep 11, 2026Sevilla · La Liga0-1L
Sep 6, 2026Barcelona · La Liga0-5L
Aug 30, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-3L
Aug 25, 2026Real Betis · La Liga0-1L

Real Sociedad

DateOpponentScore
Sep 17, 2026Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga0-3L
Sep 7, 2026Elche · La Liga3-2W
Sep 3, 2026Celta Vigo · La Liga0-0D
Aug 29, 2026Espanyol · La Liga2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Valencia1946
Real Sociedad1376

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Real Sociedad 3-4 ValenciaLa Liga
Aug 16, 2025Valencia 1-1 Real SociedadLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Valencia

  • S. Canos (out)
  • J. Copete (out)
  • M. Diakhaby (out)
  • D. Foulquier (out)
  • D. Lopez (out)

Real Sociedad

  • J. Aramburu (out)
  • A. Odriozola (out)
  • I. Zubeldia (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Valencia vs Real Sociedad prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Valencia a 26% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Real Sociedad 44%. Real Sociedad are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

0-1 (15.6%), followed by 0-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%) and 0-2 (9.3%).

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

The probability that both Valencia and Real Sociedad score is 40%. Valencia have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 43%.

How many goals should we expect in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 2.03 goals (0.84 for Valencia, 1.19 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.

When and where is Valencia vs Real Sociedad played?

Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 7. Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia.

What form are Valencia and Real Sociedad in?

Valencia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 10 conceded). Real Sociedad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Sociedad?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Valencia, 0 for Real Sociedad and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia (May 17, 2026).

What was the Valencia vs Real Sociedad result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Sociedad was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.

How is the Valencia vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.84 for Valencia, 1.19 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained