Skip to content
Elofoot

La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Thursday, September 17, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)

Malaga vs Villarreal: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

MalagaMalaga1 – 3VillarrealVillarreal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Malaga 1-3 Villarreal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Villarreal at 50%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

Match analysis

Malaga and Villarreal met on Thursday, September 17, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga. Before kick-off, our model gave Malaga a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarreal 50%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.5%).

Malaga have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 8. Villarreal have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Malaga score 0.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Villarreal score 1.40 and concede 2.20. In the table, Malaga sit 18th with 3 points from 5 games, Villarreal 19th with 2 points from 5. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Malaga have averaged 0.94 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.87 for Villarreal.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Malaga, 3 for Villarreal and 1 draw. Malaga out or doubtful: A. Aznou, F. Calero, M. Diarra, C. Dotor and J. Lobete. Villarreal: J. Foyth. In double chance terms, "Malaga or draw" stands at 51%, "Villarreal or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 76%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

26%
Malaga (Win)
24%
Draw
50%
Villarreal (Win)

Double chance

51%
Malaga or draw
74%
Villarreal or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Malaga – Villarreal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Malaga 1-1 Villarreal11.7%
Malaga 0-1 Villarreal10.8%
Malaga 1-2 Villarreal9.5%
Malaga 0-2 Villarreal8.8%
Malaga 1-0 Villarreal7.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.08 expected goals for Malaga and 1.63 for Villarreal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Malaga keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Villarreal in 34%.

Probability
Malaga expected goals1.08
Villarreal expected goals1.63
Both teams to score53%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Malaga clean sheet20%
Villarreal clean sheet34%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Malaga

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026Celta Vigo · La Liga1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Levante · La Liga0-0D
Aug 30, 2026Real Madrid · La Liga0-4L
Aug 24, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-1D
Aug 19, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga0-2L

Villarreal

DateOpponentScore
Sep 14, 2026Real Betis · La Liga1-2L
Sep 8, 2026Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League2-3L
Sep 5, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga2-3L
Aug 28, 2026Alaves · La Liga0-1L
Aug 23, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Malaga1835
Villarreal1925

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Malaga, 3 for Villarreal and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Malaga

  • A. Aznou (out)
  • F. Calero (out)
  • M. Diarra (out)
  • C. Dotor (out)
  • J. Lobete (out)

Villarreal

  • J. Foyth (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Malaga vs Villarreal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Malaga a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarreal 50%. Villarreal are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Malaga vs Villarreal?

1-1 (11.7%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (8.8%) and 1-0 (7.2%).

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Villarreal?

The probability that both Malaga and Villarreal score is 53%. Malaga have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 34%.

How many goals should we expect in Malaga vs Villarreal?

The model expects 2.71 goals (1.08 for Malaga, 1.63 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Malaga vs Villarreal played?

Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 6. Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga.

What form are Malaga and Villarreal in?

Malaga: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 8 conceded). Villarreal: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Malaga and Villarreal?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Malaga, 3 for Villarreal and 1 draw.

What was the Malaga vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Malaga 1-3 Villarreal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Villarreal at 50%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.

How is the Malaga vs Villarreal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for Malaga, 1.63 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained