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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)

Elche vs Real Madrid: 2-3 result and AI prediction review

ElcheElche2 – 3Real MadridReal Madrid

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-3

Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Madrid. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Madrid at 93%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

Match analysis

Elche and Real Madrid met on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 6 fixture. Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche. Before kick-off, our model gave Elche a 2% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Real Madrid 93%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 0-4 (11.0%) and 0-5 (8.8%).

Elche have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 4. Real Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Elche. On average Elche score 1.20 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Elche sit 19th with 2 points from 5 games, Real Madrid 2nd with 12 points from 5. 17 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Elche have averaged 0.99 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.03 for Real Madrid.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Elche, 1 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 4-1 Elche (Mar 14, 2026). Elche out or doubtful: Y. Santiago. Real Madrid: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. In double chance terms, "Elche or draw" stands at 7%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 98% and "no draw" at 95%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

2%
Elche (Win)
5%
Draw
93%
Real Madrid (Win)

Double chance

7%
Elche or draw
98%
Real Madrid or draw
95%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Elche – Real Madrid. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Elche 0-3 Real Madrid11.0%
Elche 0-4 Real Madrid11.0%
Elche 0-5 Real Madrid8.8%
Elche 0-2 Real Madrid8.3%
Elche 1-3 Real Madrid6.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.57 expected goals for Elche and 4.00 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Goals look likely in this one. Elche keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 56%.

Probability
Elche expected goals0.57
Real Madrid expected goals4.00
Both teams to score43%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals67%
Elche clean sheet2%
Real Madrid clean sheet56%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Elche

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Athletic Club · La Liga1-1D
Sep 7, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga2-3L
Aug 28, 2026Racing Santander · La Liga2-3L
Aug 23, 2026Barcelona · La Liga0-5L
Aug 17, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-1D

Real Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4-1W
Sep 8, 2026Inter · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Sep 4, 2026Real Betis · La Liga0-1L
Aug 30, 2026Malaga · La Liga4-0W
Aug 26, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga4-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Elche1925
Real Madrid2125

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 14, 2026Real Madrid 4-1 ElcheLa Liga
Nov 23, 2025Elche 2-2 Real MadridLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Elche

  • Y. Santiago (out)

Real Madrid

  • Eder Militao (out)
  • F. Mendy (out)
  • Rodrygo (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Elche vs Real Madrid prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Elche a 2% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Real Madrid 93%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Elche vs Real Madrid?

0-3 (11.0%), followed by 0-4 (11.0%), 0-5 (8.8%), 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-3 (6.3%).

Will both teams score in Elche vs Real Madrid?

The probability that both Elche and Real Madrid score is 43%. Elche have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 56%.

How many goals should we expect in Elche vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 4.57 goals (0.57 for Elche, 4.00 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 67%.

When and where is Elche vs Real Madrid played?

Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 6. Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche.

What form are Elche and Real Madrid in?

Elche: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 13 conceded). Real Madrid: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Real Madrid?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Elche, 1 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Madrid 4-1 Elche (Mar 14, 2026).

What was the Elche vs Real Madrid result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Madrid. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Madrid at 93%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.

How is the Elche vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.57 for Elche, 4.00 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained