La Liga· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Rayo Vallecano was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol was played on Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 6). Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes. Before kick-off, our model gave Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Espanyol 29%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.1%), ahead of 1-1 (13.1%) and 0-0 (10.3%).
Rayo Vallecano have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Espanyol have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Rayo Vallecano score 1.60 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Espanyol score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Rayo Vallecano sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, Espanyol 8th with 7 points from 5. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Rayo Vallecano have averaged 1.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.15 for Espanyol.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Espanyol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol (Apr 23, 2026). Rayo Vallecano out or doubtful: A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, I. Palazon and F. Perez. Espanyol: K. Garcia, A. Gorosabel, J. Puado and Jofre. In double chance terms, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" stands at 71%, "Espanyol or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol | 13.1% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Espanyol | 13.1% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Espanyol | 10.3% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Espanyol | 10.3% |
| Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Espanyol | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.27 goals in total (1.27 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.00 for Espanyol): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 46%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Espanyol in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 1.27 |
| Espanyol expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 37% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
Espanyol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| Espanyol | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Espanyol 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batalla (out)
- Luiz Felipe (out)
- R. Nteka (out)
- I. Palazon (out)
- F. Perez (out)
Espanyol
- K. Garcia (out)
- A. Gorosabel (out)
- J. Puado (out)
- Jofre (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSep 13, 2026
- Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico MadridSep 13, 2026
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Alaves 0-1 ValenciaSep 15, 2026
- Elche 2-3 Real MadridSep 15, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 4-0 OsasunaSep 16, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 SevillaSep 16, 2026
- Barcelona 7-2 Racing SantanderSep 16, 2026
- Real Betis 1-0 GetafeSep 17, 2026
- Malaga 1-3 VillarrealSep 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rayo Vallecano a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Espanyol 29%. Rayo Vallecano are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
1-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.3%) and 2-0 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol score is 46%. Rayo Vallecano have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Espanyol 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The model expects 2.27 goals (1.27 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.00 for Espanyol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol played?
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 6. Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol in?
Rayo Vallecano: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 14 conceded). Espanyol: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Espanyol and 0 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol (Apr 23, 2026).
What was the Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Rayo Vallecano was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.27 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.00 for Espanyol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- All Espanyol predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology