La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Sociedad (44%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.
Match analysis
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid was played on Sunday, September 13, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 5). Venue: Anoeta, San Sebastian. Before kick-off, our model gave Real Sociedad a 44% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Atletico Madrid 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.4%), ahead of 1-1 (13.1%) and 0-0 (11.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Real Sociedad score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Real Sociedad sit 11th with 7 points from 5 games, Atletico Madrid 8th with 7 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Real Sociedad have averaged 1.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.91 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Real Sociedad, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Sociedad (Apr 18, 2026). Real Sociedad out or doubtful: J. Martin, A. Odriozola and I. Zubeldia. Atletico Madrid: P. Barrios, A. Sorloth and A. Ortiz. In double chance terms, "Real Sociedad or draw" stands at 73%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 71%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad 1-0 Atletico Madrid | 14.4% |
| Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid | 13.1% |
| Real Sociedad 0-0 Atletico Madrid | 11.5% |
| Real Sociedad 0-1 Atletico Madrid | 10.5% |
| Real Sociedad 2-0 Atletico Madrid | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.16 goals in total (1.25 for Real Sociedad, 0.91 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 1.25 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 0.91 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 40% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 11 | 7 | 5 |
| Atletico Madrid | 8 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Real Sociedad
- J. Martin (out)
- A. Odriozola (out)
- I. Zubeldia (out)
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
- A. Ortiz (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Racing Santander 2-1 AlavesSep 12, 2026
- Osasuna 0-2 EspanyolSep 12, 2026
- Athletic Club 1-1 ElcheSep 12, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoSep 12, 2026
- Celta Vigo 1-1 MalagaSep 13, 2026
- Levante 2-4 BarcelonaSep 13, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSep 13, 2026
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolSep 15, 2026
- Alaves 0-1 ValenciaSep 15, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Real Sociedad a 44% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Atletico Madrid 27%. Real Sociedad are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
1-0 (14.4%), followed by 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%) and 2-0 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid score is 43%. Real Sociedad have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 2.16 goals (1.25 for Real Sociedad, 0.91 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 5. Venue: Anoeta, San Sebastian.
What form are Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid in?
Real Sociedad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Real Sociedad, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Sociedad (Apr 18, 2026).
What was the Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Sociedad (44%), while victory for Atletico Madrid was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.
How is the Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.25 for Real Sociedad, 0.91 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology