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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)

Athletic Club vs Elche: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Athletic ClubAthletic Club1 – 1ElcheElche

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Athletic Club 1-1 Elche. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (76%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

Match analysis

Athletic Club and Elche met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Before kick-off, our model gave Athletic Club a 76% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Elche 8%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (14.4%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%) and 3-0 (11.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Elche have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 14. Athletic Club therefore arrive in far better shape than Elche. On average Athletic Club score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Elche score 1.40 and concede 2.80. In the table, Athletic Club sit 10th with 6 points from 4 games, Elche 19th with 1 points from 4. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Athletic Club have averaged 1.42 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.99 for Elche.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Elche and 1 draw. The most recent ended Athletic Club 2-1 Elche (Feb 20, 2026). Athletic Club out or doubtful: P. Canales, U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta and D. Vivian. Elche: Y. Santiago. In double chance terms, "Athletic Club or draw" stands at 92%, "Elche or draw" at 24% and "no draw" at 84%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

76%
Athletic Club (Win)
16%
Draw
8%
Elche (Win)

Double chance

92%
Athletic Club or draw
24%
Elche or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Athletic Club – Elche. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Athletic Club 2-0 Elche14.4%
Athletic Club 1-0 Elche12.4%
Athletic Club 3-0 Elche11.1%
Athletic Club 2-1 Elche8.8%
Athletic Club 1-1 Elche7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.32 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.61 for Elche, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Elche in 10%.

Probability
Athletic Club expected goals2.32
Elche expected goals0.61
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Athletic Club clean sheet54%
Elche clean sheet10%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Athletic Club

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga3-0W
Aug 30, 2026Celta Vigo · La Liga2-0W
Aug 27, 2026Barcelona · La Liga0-2L
Aug 22, 2026Sevilla · La Liga1-3L
Aug 21, 2026Zaragoza · Club Friendlies1-3L

Elche

DateOpponentScore
Sep 7, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga2-3L
Aug 28, 2026Racing Santander · La Liga2-3L
Aug 23, 2026Barcelona · La Liga0-5L
Aug 17, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-1D
Jul 31, 2026Cordoba · Club Friendlies2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Athletic Club1064
Elche1914

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 20, 2026Athletic Club 2-1 ElcheLa Liga
Oct 19, 2025Elche 0-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Athletic Club

  • P. Canales (out)
  • U. Egiluz (out)
  • G. Guruzeta (out)
  • D. Vivian (out)

Elche

  • Y. Santiago (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Athletic Club vs Elche prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Athletic Club a 76% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Elche 8%. Athletic Club are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Athletic Club vs Elche?

2-0 (14.4%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%), 3-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Elche?

The probability that both Athletic Club and Elche score is 41%. Athletic Club have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Elche 10%.

How many goals should we expect in Athletic Club vs Elche?

The model expects 2.93 goals (2.32 for Athletic Club, 0.61 for Elche). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.

When and where is Athletic Club vs Elche played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 5. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao.

What form are Athletic Club and Elche in?

Athletic Club: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Elche: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 14 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Elche?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 0 for Elche and 1 draw. The most recent ended Athletic Club 2-1 Elche (Feb 20, 2026).

What was the Athletic Club vs Elche result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Athletic Club 1-1 Elche. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (76%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): missed.

How is the Athletic Club vs Elche prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.32 for Athletic Club, 0.61 for Elche) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained