La Liga· Kick-off : Friday, September 11, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Sevilla vs Valencia: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sevilla 1-0 Valencia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sevilla at 69%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (17.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.
Match analysis
Sevilla and Valencia met on Friday, September 11, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla. Before kick-off, our model gave Sevilla a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Valencia 10%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.5%), followed by 2-0 (16.0%) and 3-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sevilla have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Valencia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 10. Sevilla therefore arrive in far better shape than Valencia. On average Sevilla score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Valencia score 0.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Sevilla sit 6th with 7 points from 4 games, Valencia 20th with 1 points from 4. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Sevilla have averaged 1.01 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.94 for Valencia.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sevilla, 1 for Valencia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sevilla 0-2 Valencia (Mar 21, 2026). Sevilla out or doubtful: Marcao, R. Vargas and A. Sangante. Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, J. De Haas, D. Foulquier and D. Lopez. In double chance terms, "Sevilla or draw" stands at 90%, "Valencia or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sevilla – Valencia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sevilla 1-0 Valencia | 17.5% |
| Sevilla 2-0 Valencia | 16.0% |
| Sevilla 3-0 Valencia | 9.7% |
| Sevilla 0-0 Valencia | 9.6% |
| Sevilla 1-1 Valencia | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.82 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.52 for Valencia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Few goals are expected here. Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 60% of scenarios, Valencia in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sevilla expected goals | 1.82 |
| Valencia expected goals | 0.52 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 60% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Sevilla
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Valencia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Teruel · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| Valencia | 20 | 1 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Sevilla 0-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Valencia 1-1 Sevilla | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Sevilla
- Marcao (out)
- R. Vargas (out)
- A. Sangante (out)
Valencia
- S. Canos (out)
- J. Copete (out)
- J. De Haas (out)
- D. Foulquier (out)
- D. Lopez (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Racing Santander 2-1 AlavesSep 12, 2026
- Osasuna 0-2 EspanyolSep 12, 2026
- Athletic Club 1-1 ElcheSep 12, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoSep 12, 2026
- Celta Vigo 1-1 MalagaSep 13, 2026
- Levante 2-4 BarcelonaSep 13, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSep 13, 2026
- Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico MadridSep 13, 2026
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolSep 15, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sevilla vs Valencia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sevilla a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Valencia 10%. Sevilla are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Sevilla vs Valencia?
1-0 (17.5%), followed by 2-0 (16.0%), 3-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 1-1 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Valencia?
The probability that both Sevilla and Valencia score is 34%. Sevilla have a 60% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Valencia 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Sevilla vs Valencia?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.82 for Sevilla, 0.52 for Valencia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Sevilla vs Valencia played?
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 5. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla.
What form are Sevilla and Valencia in?
Sevilla: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Valencia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valencia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sevilla, 1 for Valencia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sevilla 0-2 Valencia (Mar 21, 2026).
What was the Sevilla vs Valencia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sevilla 1-0 Valencia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Sevilla at 69%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (17.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): correct.
How is the Sevilla vs Valencia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.82 for Sevilla, 0.52 for Valencia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sevilla predictions
- All Valencia predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology