La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Racing Santander vs Alaves: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alaves (66%), while victory for Racing Santander was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.
Match analysis
Racing Santander vs Alaves was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 5). Venue: Estadio El Sardinero, Santander. Before kick-off, our model gave Racing Santander a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alaves 66%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (10.7%), ahead of 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-1 (9.8%).
Racing Santander have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Alaves are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Alaves. On average Racing Santander score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Alaves score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Racing Santander sit 13th with 4 points from 4 games, Alaves 2nd with 10 points from 4. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Racing Santander have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.49 for Alaves.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Racing Santander, 0 for Alaves and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves (Aug 7, 2026). Racing Santander out or doubtful: S. Eriksson and A. Martin. Alaves: F. Garces and M. Rodriguez. In double chance terms, "Racing Santander or draw" stands at 34%, "Alaves or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 81%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Racing Santander – Alaves. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Racing Santander 0-2 Alaves | 10.7% |
| Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves | 9.8% |
| Racing Santander 0-1 Alaves | 9.8% |
| Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | 9.0% |
| Racing Santander 0-3 Alaves | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.10 goals in total (0.92 for Racing Santander, 2.18 for Alaves): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 53%. Everything points to an open game. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Alaves in 40%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Racing Santander expected goals | 0.92 |
| Alaves expected goals | 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 11% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 40% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Racing Santander
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Alaves · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 13 | 4 | 4 |
| Alaves | 2 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Racing Santander
- S. Eriksson (out)
- A. Martin (out)
Alaves
- F. Garces (out)
- M. Rodriguez (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Sevilla 1-0 ValenciaSep 11, 2026
- Osasuna 0-2 EspanyolSep 12, 2026
- Athletic Club 1-1 ElcheSep 12, 2026
- Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoSep 12, 2026
- Celta Vigo 1-1 MalagaSep 13, 2026
- Levante 2-4 BarcelonaSep 13, 2026
- Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La CorunaSep 13, 2026
- Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico MadridSep 13, 2026
- Villarreal 1-2 Real BetisSep 14, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolSep 15, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Racing Santander vs Alaves prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Racing Santander a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alaves 66%. Alaves are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Racing Santander vs Alaves?
0-2 (10.7%), followed by 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 0-3 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Alaves?
The probability that both Racing Santander and Alaves score is 53%. Racing Santander have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alaves 40%.
How many goals should we expect in Racing Santander vs Alaves?
The model expects 3.10 goals (0.92 for Racing Santander, 2.18 for Alaves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Racing Santander vs Alaves played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 5. Venue: Estadio El Sardinero, Santander.
What form are Racing Santander and Alaves in?
Racing Santander: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Alaves: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Racing Santander and Alaves?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Racing Santander, 0 for Alaves and 1 draw. The most recent ended Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves (Aug 7, 2026).
What was the Racing Santander vs Alaves result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Alaves (66%), while victory for Racing Santander was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): correct.
How is the Racing Santander vs Alaves prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.92 for Racing Santander, 2.18 for Alaves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Racing Santander predictions
- All Alaves predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology