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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)

Celta Vigo vs Malaga: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Celta VigoCelta Vigo1 – 1MalagaMalaga

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Malaga (39%), while a draw was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (24%): correct.

Match analysis

Celta Vigo vs Malaga was played on Sunday, September 13, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 5). Venue: Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. Before kick-off, our model gave Celta Vigo a 27% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Malaga 39%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (18.5%), ahead of 0-1 (17.7%) and 1-0 (13.5%).

Celta Vigo have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Malaga have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Celta Vigo score 0.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Malaga score 0.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Celta Vigo sit 16th with 3 points from 5 games, Malaga 18th with 2 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Celta Vigo have averaged 0.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.07 for Malaga.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Malaga and 1 draw. Celta Vigo out or doubtful: A. Antanon, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Febas and B. Iglesias. Malaga: F. Calero, M. Diarra, J. Lobete, D. Murillo and A. Ochoa. In double chance terms, "Celta Vigo or draw" stands at 61%, "Malaga or draw" at 73% and "no draw" at 66%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

27%
Celta Vigo (Win)
34%
Draw
39%
Malaga (Win)

Double chance

61%
Celta Vigo or draw
73%
Malaga or draw
66%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Celta Vigo – Malaga. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Celta Vigo 0-0 Malaga18.5%
Celta Vigo 0-1 Malaga17.7%
Celta Vigo 1-0 Malaga13.5%
Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga12.9%
Celta Vigo 0-2 Malaga8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.69 goals in total (0.73 for Celta Vigo, 0.96 for Malaga): over 2.5 goals has a 24% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Malaga in 48%.

Probability
Celta Vigo expected goals0.73
Malaga expected goals0.96
Both teams to score32%
Over 1.5 goals50%
Over 2.5 goals24%
Over 3.5 goals9%
Celta Vigo clean sheet38%
Malaga clean sheet48%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Celta Vigo

DateOpponentScore
Sep 7, 2026Getafe · La Liga1-1D
Sep 3, 2026Real Sociedad · La Liga0-0D
Aug 30, 2026Athletic Club · La Liga0-2L
Aug 27, 2026Osasuna · La Liga1-2L
Aug 22, 2026Valencia · La Liga0-0D

Malaga

DateOpponentScore
Sep 6, 2026Levante · La Liga0-0D
Aug 30, 2026Real Madrid · La Liga0-4L
Aug 24, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-1D
Aug 19, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga0-2L
Aug 12, 2026Fulham · Club Friendlies2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Celta Vigo1635
Malaga1824

Head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Malaga and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Celta Vigo

  • A. Antanon (out)
  • J. El Abdellaoui (out)
  • A. Febas (out)
  • B. Iglesias (out)

Malaga

  • F. Calero (out)
  • M. Diarra (out)
  • J. Lobete (out)
  • D. Murillo (out)
  • A. Ochoa (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Celta Vigo vs Malaga prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Celta Vigo a 27% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Malaga 39%. Malaga are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Celta Vigo vs Malaga?

0-0 (18.5%), followed by 0-1 (17.7%), 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-2 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Malaga?

The probability that both Celta Vigo and Malaga score is 32%. Celta Vigo have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Malaga 48%.

How many goals should we expect in Celta Vigo vs Malaga?

The model expects 1.69 goals (0.73 for Celta Vigo, 0.96 for Malaga). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 50%, over 2.5 goals 24%, over 3.5 goals 9%.

When and where is Celta Vigo vs Malaga played?

Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 5. Venue: Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo.

What form are Celta Vigo and Malaga in?

Celta Vigo: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded). Malaga: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Malaga?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Malaga and 1 draw.

What was the Celta Vigo vs Malaga result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Malaga (39%), while a draw was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.9%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (24%): correct.

How is the Celta Vigo vs Malaga prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.73 for Celta Vigo, 0.96 for Malaga) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained