UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Armenia vs Montenegro prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Armenia vs Montenegro match is scheduled on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Armenia start as favourites with a 48% chance of victory; Montenegro are given 27% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.3%).
Armenia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Montenegro therefore arrive in far better shape than Armenia. On average Armenia score 0.80 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Armenia and Montenegro: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Armenia or draw" stands at 73%, "Montenegro or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Armenia to edge Montenegro (48% probability). On recent form, Armenia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Armenia – Montenegro. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Armenia 1-1 Montenegro | 12.1% |
| Armenia 1-0 Montenegro | 11.2% |
| Armenia 2-1 Montenegro | 9.3% |
| Armenia 2-0 Montenegro | 8.6% |
| Armenia 0-1 Montenegro | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.54 expected goals for Armenia and 1.08 for Montenegro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Armenia keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Montenegro in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Armenia expected goals | 1.54 |
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Armenia clean sheet | 34% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-9 | L |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montenegro | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Armenia and Montenegro: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Armenia
No absences reported.
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Armenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hovhannisyan6/5
- N. Tiknizyan5/5
- E. Piloyan4/5
- E. Spertsyan4/5
- G. Ranos4/5
- G. Harutyunyan3/5
- H. Avagyan3/5
- Junior Julio3/5
- S. Muradyan3/5
- A. Miranyan2/5
- A. Serobyan2/5
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bulatovic3/5
- A. Marusic3/5
- M. Jankovic3/5
- M. Osmajic3/5
- Balša Popović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- Igor Vujačić2/5
- Milan Vukotić2/5
- N. Krstovic2/5
- S. Haksabanovic2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Armenia vs Montenegro prediction?
Our AI gives Armenia a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Montenegro 27%. Armenia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Armenia vs Montenegro?
1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Armenia vs Montenegro?
The probability that both Armenia and Montenegro score is 52%. Armenia have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Montenegro 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Armenia vs Montenegro?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.54 for Armenia, 1.08 for Montenegro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Armenia vs Montenegro played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Armenia and Montenegro in?
Armenia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded). Montenegro: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Armenia vs Montenegro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Armenia, 1.08 for Montenegro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Armenia predictions
- All Montenegro predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology