UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Armenia vs Montenegro: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Armenia 2-3 Montenegro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 37%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
Match analysis
Armenia and Montenegro met on Monday, September 28, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Before kick-off, our model gave Armenia a 33% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Montenegro 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.5%), followed by 0-1 (13.3%) and 1-0 (12.4%).
Armenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Montenegro therefore arrive in far better shape than Armenia. On average Armenia score 1.20 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Armenia sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Montenegro 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Armenia, 1 for Montenegro and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 2-2 Armenia (Jun 9, 2025). In double chance terms, "Armenia or draw" stands at 63%, "Montenegro or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Armenia and Montenegro: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Armenia (1st, 3 pts) host Montenegro (2nd, 3 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Armenia – Montenegro. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Armenia 1-1 Montenegro | 13.5% |
| Armenia 0-1 Montenegro | 13.3% |
| Armenia 1-0 Montenegro | 12.4% |
| Armenia 0-0 Montenegro | 12.2% |
| Armenia 1-2 Montenegro | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.01 expected goals for Armenia and 1.09 for Montenegro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Armenia keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Montenegro in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Armenia expected goals | 1.01 |
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Armenia clean sheet | 34% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-9 | L |
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Montenegro | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2025 | Montenegro 2-2 Armenia | International Friendlies |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Armenia 1-0 Montenegro | International Friendlies |
| Jun 10, 2017 | Montenegro 4-1 Armenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Armenia 3-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Armenia
No absences reported.
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Armenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hovhannisyan6/5
- N. Tiknizyan5/5
- E. Piloyan4/5
- E. Spertsyan4/5
- G. Harutyunyan4/5
- A. Miranyan3/5
- A. Serobyan3/5
- G. Ranos3/5
- Junior Julio3/5
- H. Avagyan2/5
- S. Muradyan2/5
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Vujacic4/5
- S. Haksabanovic3/5
- S. Loncar3/5
- A. Bulatovic2/5
- A. Marusic2/5
- B. Popovic2/5
- D. Camaj2/5
- M. Jankovic2/5
- M. Osmajic2/5
- M. Vukotic2/5
- S. Rubezic2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium 0-1 FranceSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Armenia vs Montenegro prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Armenia a 33% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Montenegro 37%. Montenegro are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Armenia vs Montenegro?
1-1 (13.5%), followed by 0-1 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%) and 1-2 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Armenia vs Montenegro?
The probability that both Armenia and Montenegro score is 42%. Armenia have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Montenegro 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Armenia vs Montenegro?
The model expects 2.10 goals (1.01 for Armenia, 1.09 for Montenegro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Armenia vs Montenegro played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.
What form are Armenia and Montenegro in?
Armenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 13 conceded). Montenegro: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Armenia and Montenegro?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Armenia, 1 for Montenegro and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 2-2 Armenia (Jun 9, 2025).
What was the Armenia vs Montenegro result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Armenia 2-3 Montenegro. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 37%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
How is the Armenia vs Montenegro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.01 for Armenia, 1.09 for Montenegro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Armenia predictions
- All Montenegro predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology