UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Georgia vs Ukraine prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Georgia vs Ukraine kicks off on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Georgia start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Ukraine are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Georgia score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Ukraine score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Georgia, 1 for Ukraine and 1 draw. The most recent ended Georgia 1-1 Ukraine (Nov 16, 2024). In double chance terms, "Georgia or draw" stands at 76%, "Ukraine or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Georgia are tipped by our AI model in this Georgia v Ukraine (51%). On recent form, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Georgia – Ukraine. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | 11.8% |
| Georgia 1-0 Ukraine | 11.4% |
| Georgia 2-1 Ukraine | 9.5% |
| Georgia 2-0 Ukraine | 9.2% |
| Georgia 0-1 Ukraine | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Georgia and 1.04 for Ukraine, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Georgia keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Ukraine in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Georgia expected goals | 1.61 |
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Georgia clean sheet | 35% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Georgia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Bulgaria · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Ukraine 1-0 Georgia | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Georgia
No absences reported.
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Georgia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Giorgi Mamardashvili3/5
- Gizo Mamageishvili3/5
- Ilia Beriashvili3/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3/5
- Luka Lochoshvili3/5
- Otar Kiteishvili3/5
- Anzor Mekvabishvili2/5
- Georges Mikautadze2/5
- Giorgi Chakvetadze2/5
- Giorgi Kochorashvili2/5
- Giorgi Kvilitaia2/5
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trubin4/5
- I. Zabarnyi4/5
- V. Mykolenko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- E. Sarapiy3/5
- G. Sudakov3/5
- M. Matviienko3/5
- R. Malinovskyi3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- Y. Yarmolyuk3/5
- I. Kaliuzhnyi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Armenia – MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Latvia – CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden – PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland – HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye – ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania – Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium – FranceSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Georgia vs Ukraine prediction?
Our AI gives Georgia a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ukraine 24%. Georgia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Georgia vs Ukraine?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Georgia vs Ukraine?
The probability that both Georgia and Ukraine score is 52%. Georgia have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ukraine 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Georgia vs Ukraine?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Georgia, 1.04 for Ukraine). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Georgia vs Ukraine played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Georgia and Ukraine in?
Georgia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Ukraine: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Georgia and Ukraine?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Georgia, 1 for Ukraine and 1 draw. The most recent ended Georgia 1-1 Ukraine (Nov 16, 2024).
How is the Georgia vs Ukraine prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Georgia, 1.04 for Ukraine) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Georgia predictions
- All Ukraine predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology