UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Georgia vs Ukraine: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Georgia 0-0 Ukraine. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (35%), while a draw was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): correct.
Match analysis
Georgia and Ukraine met on Monday, September 28, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi. Before kick-off, our model gave Georgia a 34% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Ukraine 35%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.5%), followed by 0-1 (13.3%) and 1-0 (13.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Georgia score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Ukraine score 1.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Georgia sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Ukraine 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Georgia, 1 for Ukraine and 1 draw. The most recent ended Georgia 1-1 Ukraine (Nov 16, 2024). In double chance terms, "Georgia or draw" stands at 65%, "Ukraine or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Georgia host Ukraine in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (30%). In the table, Georgia (4th, 0 pts) host Ukraine (1st, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Georgia – Ukraine. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | 13.5% |
| Georgia 0-1 Ukraine | 13.3% |
| Georgia 1-0 Ukraine | 13.0% |
| Georgia 0-0 Ukraine | 12.7% |
| Georgia 1-2 Ukraine | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.02 expected goals for Georgia and 1.04 for Ukraine, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 34% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Georgia keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Ukraine in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Georgia expected goals | 1.02 |
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Georgia clean sheet | 35% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Georgia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Northern Ireland · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Ukraine | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Georgia 1-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Ukraine 1-0 Georgia | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Georgia
No absences reported.
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Georgia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Mamardashvili4/5
- K. Kvaratskhelia4/5
- L. Lochoshvili4/5
- A. Mekvabishvili3/5
- G. Kochorashvili3/5
- G. Mamageishvili3/5
- G. Mikautadze3/5
- I. Beriashvili3/5
- O. Kiteishvili3/5
- S. Goglichidze3/5
- G. Chakvetadze2/5
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Zabarnyi4/5
- V. Mykolenko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- A. Trubin3/5
- E. Sarapiy3/5
- G. Sudakov3/5
- O. Ocheretko3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- D. Riznyk2/5
- M. Matviienko2/5
- R. Malinovskyi2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium 0-1 FranceSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Georgia vs Ukraine prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Georgia a 34% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Ukraine 35%. Ukraine are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Georgia vs Ukraine?
1-1 (13.5%), followed by 0-1 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%) and 1-2 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Georgia vs Ukraine?
The probability that both Georgia and Ukraine score is 41%. Georgia have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ukraine 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Georgia vs Ukraine?
The model expects 2.06 goals (1.02 for Georgia, 1.04 for Ukraine). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 34%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Georgia vs Ukraine played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi.
What form are Georgia and Ukraine in?
Georgia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Ukraine: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Georgia and Ukraine?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Georgia, 1 for Ukraine and 1 draw. The most recent ended Georgia 1-1 Ukraine (Nov 16, 2024).
What was the Georgia vs Ukraine result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Georgia 0-0 Ukraine. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (35%), while a draw was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (12.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): correct.
How is the Georgia vs Ukraine prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.02 for Georgia, 1.04 for Ukraine) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Georgia predictions
- All Ukraine predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology