UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Latvia vs Cyprus prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Latvia take on Cyprus on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Latvia start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Cyprus are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Latvia score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Cyprus score 1.60 and concede 1.60.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Latvia, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cyprus 1-1 Latvia (Mar 21, 2024). In double chance terms, "Latvia or draw" stands at 76%, "Cyprus or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Latvia are tipped by our AI model in this Latvia v Cyprus (51%). On recent form, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Latvia – Cyprus. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Latvia 1-1 Cyprus | 11.8% |
| Latvia 1-0 Cyprus | 11.4% |
| Latvia 2-1 Cyprus | 9.5% |
| Latvia 2-0 Cyprus | 9.3% |
| Latvia 0-1 Cyprus | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Latvia and 1.03 for Cyprus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Latvia keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Cyprus in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Latvia expected goals | 1.62 |
| Cyprus expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Latvia clean sheet | 36% |
| Cyprus clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Latvia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Cyprus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Estonia · International Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyprus | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | Cyprus 1-1 Latvia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Latvia
No absences reported.
Cyprus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Latvia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Vapne3/5
- R. Jurkovskis3/5
- R. Savalnieks3/5
- A. Cernomordijs2/5
- A. Ciganiks2/5
- Andrejs Cigaņiks2/5
- Antonijs Černomordijs2/5
- D. Melniks2/5
- Dmitrijs Zelenkovs2/5
- E. Emsis2/5
- F. Orols2/5
Cyprus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andronikos Kakoullis3/5
- Giannis Satsias3/5
- Stelios Andreou3/5
- A. Shikkis2/5
- C. Sielis2/5
- Charalampos Kyriakou2/5
- G. Kastanos2/5
- G. Malekkidis2/5
- Grigoris Kastanos2/5
- I. Pittas2/5
- Ioannis Pittas2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Germany – GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway – PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel – IrelandSep 27, 2026
- Armenia – MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia – UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Sweden – PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland – HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye – ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania – Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium – FranceSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Latvia vs Cyprus prediction?
Our AI gives Latvia a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cyprus 24%. Latvia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Latvia vs Cyprus?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Latvia vs Cyprus?
The probability that both Latvia and Cyprus score is 52%. Latvia have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cyprus 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Latvia vs Cyprus?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Latvia, 1.03 for Cyprus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Latvia vs Cyprus played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Latvia and Cyprus in?
Latvia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). Cyprus: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Latvia and Cyprus?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Latvia, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cyprus 1-1 Latvia (Mar 21, 2024).
How is the Latvia vs Cyprus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Latvia, 1.03 for Cyprus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Latvia predictions
- All Cyprus predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology