UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Norway vs Portugal: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Norway 1-2 Portugal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Norway (39%), while victory for Portugal was rated at only 36%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Norway and Portugal met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo. Before kick-off, our model gave Norway a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Portugal 36%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.4%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Norway score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Portugal score 1.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Norway sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Portugal 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Norway have averaged 1.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.59 for Portugal.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and Portugal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Norway or draw" stands at 64%, "Portugal or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Norway and Portugal: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Norway have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Portugal have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 56%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Norway – Portugal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norway 1-1 Portugal | 11.4% |
| Norway 2-1 Portugal | 8.6% |
| Norway 1-2 Portugal | 8.2% |
| Norway 1-0 Portugal | 8.0% |
| Norway 0-1 Portugal | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.51 expected goals for Norway and 1.43 for Portugal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 59%. Norway keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Portugal in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Norway expected goals | 1.51 |
| Portugal expected goals | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Norway clean sheet | 24% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
Portugal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Croatia · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Uzbekistan · FIFA World Cup | 5-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Portugal | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and Portugal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Norway
No absences reported.
Portugal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Norway
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Berg5/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- K. Ajer4/5
- S. Berge4/5
- T. Heggem4/5
- A. Nusa3/5
- A. Sorloth3/5
- D. Wolfe3/5
- J. Ryerson3/5
- M. Odegaard3/5
- O. Nyland3/5
Portugal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- B. Fernandes4/5
- C. Ronaldo4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- J. Cancelo4/5
- N. Mendes4/5
- P. Neto4/5
- R. Dias4/5
- R. Veiga4/5
- J. Neves3/5
- Joao Felix3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
- Serbia 1-2 NetherlandsSep 27, 2026
- Austria 3-1 KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar 0-0 AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Denmark 2-0 WalesSep 27, 2026
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Norway vs Portugal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Norway a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Portugal 36%. Norway are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Norway vs Portugal?
1-1 (11.4%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%), 1-0 (8.0%) and 0-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Norway vs Portugal?
The probability that both Norway and Portugal score is 59%. Norway have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Portugal 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Norway vs Portugal?
The model expects 2.94 goals (1.51 for Norway, 1.43 for Portugal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Norway vs Portugal played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo.
What form are Norway and Portugal in?
Norway: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Portugal: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded).
What was the Norway vs Portugal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Norway 1-2 Portugal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Norway (39%), while victory for Portugal was rated at only 36%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Norway vs Portugal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.51 for Norway, 1.43 for Portugal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Norway predictions
- All Portugal predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology