UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lithuania (66%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
Match analysis
Lithuania and Azerbaijan met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas, Kaunas. Before kick-off, our model gave Lithuania a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Azerbaijan 14%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lithuania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Azerbaijan have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Azerbaijan therefore arrive in far better shape than Lithuania. On average Lithuania score 1.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Azerbaijan score 2.00 and concede 1.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lithuania, 0 for Azerbaijan and 1 draw. The most recent ended Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania (Mar 25, 2019). In double chance terms, "Lithuania or draw" stands at 86%, "Azerbaijan or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Lithuania are tipped by our AI model in this Lithuania v Azerbaijan (66%). On recent form, Lithuania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Azerbaijan have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lithuania – Azerbaijan. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lithuania 2-0 Azerbaijan | 12.0% |
| Lithuania 1-0 Azerbaijan | 11.7% |
| Lithuania 2-1 Azerbaijan | 9.7% |
| Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan | 9.5% |
| Lithuania 3-0 Azerbaijan | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.06 expected goals for Lithuania and 0.81 for Azerbaijan, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Lithuania keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Azerbaijan in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lithuania expected goals | 2.06 |
| Azerbaijan expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Lithuania clean sheet | 45% |
| Azerbaijan clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lithuania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Azerbaijan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Tajikistan · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Sierra Leone · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | St. Lucia · FIFA Series | 6-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Azerbaijan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Lithuania
No absences reported.
Azerbaijan
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Lithuania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Utkus5/5
- G. Gineitis5/5
- J. Lasickas5/5
- M. Vorobjovas5/5
- A. Kucys4/5
- V. Armalas4/5
- D. Sluta2/5
- E. Gertmonas2/5
- E. Jankauskas2/5
- E. Kloniunas2/5
- G. Sirgedas2/5
Azerbaijan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Badalov4/5
- E. Mahmudov4/5
- A. Isayev3/5
- B. Huseynov3/5
- E. Cafarquliyev3/5
- E. Safarov3/5
- M. Qurbanly3/5
- Q. Aliyev3/5
- R. Dadashov3/5
- R. Dashdamirov3/5
- A. Krivotsyuk2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- Serbia 1-2 NetherlandsSep 27, 2026
- Austria 3-1 KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar 0-0 AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Denmark 2-0 WalesSep 27, 2026
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lithuania vs Azerbaijan prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lithuania a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Azerbaijan 14%. Lithuania are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
The probability that both Lithuania and Azerbaijan score is 48%. Lithuania have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Azerbaijan 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
The model expects 2.87 goals (2.06 for Lithuania, 0.81 for Azerbaijan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Lithuania vs Azerbaijan played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas, Kaunas.
What form are Lithuania and Azerbaijan in?
Lithuania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). Azerbaijan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lithuania and Azerbaijan?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lithuania, 0 for Azerbaijan and 1 draw. The most recent ended Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania (Mar 25, 2019).
What was the Lithuania vs Azerbaijan result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lithuania (66%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
How is the Lithuania vs Azerbaijan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.06 for Lithuania, 0.81 for Azerbaijan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lithuania predictions
- All Azerbaijan predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology