UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Serbia vs Netherlands prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Serbia vs Netherlands match is scheduled on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). It is a tight call: 33% for Serbia, 25% for the draw and 42% for Netherlands. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (9.0%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Serbia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 6. Netherlands therefore arrive in far better shape than Serbia. On average Serbia score 0.80 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Netherlands score 2.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Serbia sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Netherlands 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Serbia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Serbia or draw" stands at 58%, "Netherlands or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Netherlands to edge Serbia (42% probability). In the table, Serbia (4th, 0 pts) host Netherlands (3rd, 1 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 57%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Serbia – Netherlands. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Serbia 1-1 Netherlands | 11.8% |
| Serbia 0-1 Netherlands | 9.0% |
| Serbia 1-2 Netherlands | 8.9% |
| Serbia 1-0 Netherlands | 7.8% |
| Serbia 2-1 Netherlands | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.31 expected goals for Serbia and 1.51 for Netherlands, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Serbia keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, Netherlands in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Serbia expected goals | 1.31 |
| Netherlands expected goals | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 22% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Uzbekistan · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Serbia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Serbia
No absences reported.
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stankovic4/5
- S. Erakovic3/5
- S. Pavlovic3/5
- V. Birmancevic3/5
- A. Terzic2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- N. Milenkovic2/5
- S. Milinkovic-Savic2/5
- A. Avdic1/5
- A. Mitrovic1/5
- A. Zivkovic1/5
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- C. Gakpo5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- F. de Jong5/5
- J. P. van Hecke5/5
- R. Gravenberch5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- D. Malen4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- T. Reijnders4/5
- B. Brobbey3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Slovakia – MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia – CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia – SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania – AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
- Austria – KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar – AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Denmark – WalesSep 27, 2026
- Germany – GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway – PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel – IrelandSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Serbia vs Netherlands prediction?
Our AI gives Serbia a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Netherlands 42%. Netherlands are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Serbia vs Netherlands?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Serbia vs Netherlands?
The probability that both Serbia and Netherlands score is 57%. Serbia have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Netherlands 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Serbia vs Netherlands?
The model expects 2.82 goals (1.31 for Serbia, 1.51 for Netherlands). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Serbia vs Netherlands played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Serbia and Netherlands in?
Serbia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded). Netherlands: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Serbia vs Netherlands prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.31 for Serbia, 1.51 for Netherlands) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Serbia predictions
- All Netherlands predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology