UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Serbia vs Netherlands: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Serbia 1-2 Netherlands. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 41%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.
Match analysis
Serbia and Netherlands met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade. Before kick-off, our model gave Serbia a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Netherlands 41%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (8.8%) and 1-2 (8.7%).
Serbia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 6. Netherlands therefore arrive in far better shape than Serbia. On average Serbia score 0.80 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Netherlands score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Serbia sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Netherlands 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Serbia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Serbia or draw" stands at 59%, "Netherlands or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Serbia and Netherlands: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Serbia (4th, 0 pts) host Netherlands (3rd, 1 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 57%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Serbia – Netherlands. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Serbia 1-1 Netherlands | 11.8% |
| Serbia 0-1 Netherlands | 8.8% |
| Serbia 1-2 Netherlands | 8.7% |
| Serbia 1-0 Netherlands | 8.0% |
| Serbia 2-1 Netherlands | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.34 expected goals for Serbia and 1.48 for Netherlands, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Serbia keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Netherlands in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Serbia expected goals | 1.34 |
| Netherlands expected goals | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 23% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Serbia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 1-5 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Germany · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Serbia and Netherlands: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Serbia
No absences reported.
Netherlands
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Serbia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Stankovic4/5
- S. Erakovic3/5
- S. Pavlovic3/5
- V. Birmancevic3/5
- A. Terzic2/5
- F. Stankovic2/5
- N. Milenkovic2/5
- S. Milinkovic-Savic2/5
- A. Avdic1/5
- A. Mitrovic1/5
- A. Zivkovic1/5
Netherlands
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Verbruggen5/5
- C. Gakpo5/5
- D. Dumfries5/5
- R. Gravenberch5/5
- V. van Dijk5/5
- B. Brobbey4/5
- F. de Jong4/5
- J. P. van Hecke4/5
- M. van de Ven4/5
- T. Reijnders4/5
- C. Summerville3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
- Austria 3-1 KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar 0-0 AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Denmark 2-0 WalesSep 27, 2026
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Serbia vs Netherlands prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Serbia a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Netherlands 41%. Netherlands are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Serbia vs Netherlands?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 0-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%), 1-0 (8.0%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Serbia vs Netherlands?
The probability that both Serbia and Netherlands score is 57%. Serbia have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Netherlands 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Serbia vs Netherlands?
The model expects 2.82 goals (1.34 for Serbia, 1.48 for Netherlands). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Serbia vs Netherlands played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade.
What form are Serbia and Netherlands in?
Serbia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded). Netherlands: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the Serbia vs Netherlands result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Serbia 1-2 Netherlands. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 41%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (54%): correct.
How is the Serbia vs Netherlands prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.34 for Serbia, 1.48 for Netherlands) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Serbia predictions
- All Netherlands predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology