UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Germany vs Greece: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Germany 0-1 Greece. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (38%), while victory for Greece was rated at only 38%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
Match analysis
Germany and Greece met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg. Before kick-off, our model gave Germany a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Greece 38%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.4%) and 1-2 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Germany have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Greece have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Germany therefore arrive in far better shape than Greece. On average Germany score 2.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Greece score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Germany sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, Greece 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Germany, 0 for Greece and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024). In double chance terms, "Germany or draw" stands at 62%, "Greece or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Germany host Greece in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (24%). On recent form, Germany have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Greece have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Germany – Greece. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Germany 1-1 Greece | 10.9% |
| Germany 2-1 Greece | 8.4% |
| Germany 1-2 Greece | 8.4% |
| Germany 1-0 Greece | 7.1% |
| Germany 0-1 Greece | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.54 expected goals for Germany and 1.54 for Greece, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 62%. Goals look likely in this one. Germany keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Greece in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Germany expected goals | 1.54 |
| Greece expected goals | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Germany clean sheet | 21% |
| Greece clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao · FIFA World Cup | 7-1 | W |
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Paraguay · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Greece | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Greece | International Friendlies |
| Jun 22, 2012 | Germany 4-2 Greece | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Germany
No absences reported.
Greece
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Nmecha5/5
- J. Kimmich5/5
- J. Tah5/5
- K. Havertz5/5
- A. Pavlovic4/5
- F. Wirtz4/5
- L. Sane4/5
- M. Neuer4/5
- N. Brown4/5
- J. Musiala3/5
- N. Schlotterbeck3/5
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- D. Kourbelis4/5
- P. Retsos4/5
- G. Vagiannidis3/5
- K. Koulierakis3/5
- K. Mavropanos3/5
- K. Tsimikas3/5
- K. Tzolakis3/5
- V. Pavlidis3/5
- A. Bakasetas2/5
- A. Douvikas2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
- Serbia 1-2 NetherlandsSep 27, 2026
- Austria 3-1 KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar 0-0 AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Denmark 2-0 WalesSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Germany vs Greece prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Germany a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Greece 38%. Germany are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Germany vs Greece?
1-1 (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%), 1-0 (7.1%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Germany vs Greece?
The probability that both Germany and Greece score is 62%. Germany have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Greece 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Germany vs Greece?
The model expects 3.08 goals (1.54 for Germany, 1.54 for Greece). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Germany vs Greece played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg.
What form are Germany and Greece in?
Germany: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded). Greece: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Greece?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Germany, 0 for Greece and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024).
What was the Germany vs Greece result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Germany 0-1 Greece. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Germany (38%), while victory for Greece was rated at only 38%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): missed.
How is the Germany vs Greece prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Germany, 1.54 for Greece) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Germany predictions
- All Greece predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology