UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Germany vs Greece prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Germany vs Greece kicks off on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). It is a tight call: 39% for Germany, 24% for the draw and 37% for Greece. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Greece have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Germany therefore arrive in far better shape than Greece. On average Germany score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Greece score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Germany sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, Greece 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Germany, 0 for Greece and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024). In double chance terms, "Germany or draw" stands at 63%, "Greece or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Germany host Greece in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (24%). On recent form, Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Greece have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Germany – Greece. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Germany 1-1 Greece | 10.9% |
| Germany 2-1 Greece | 8.6% |
| Germany 1-2 Greece | 8.2% |
| Germany 1-0 Greece | 7.2% |
| Germany 0-1 Greece | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.57 expected goals for Germany and 1.51 for Greece, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 62%. Goals look likely in this one. Germany keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, Greece in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Germany expected goals | 1.57 |
| Greece expected goals | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Germany clean sheet | 22% |
| Greece clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Germany
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao · FIFA World Cup | 7-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | United States · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Greece
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Paraguay · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Greece | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Greece | International Friendlies |
| Jun 22, 2012 | Germany 4-2 Greece | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Germany
No absences reported.
Greece
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Germany
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Pavlovic5/5
- F. Nmecha5/5
- F. Wirtz5/5
- J. Kimmich5/5
- J. Tah5/5
- K. Havertz5/5
- L. Sane5/5
- J. Musiala4/5
- M. Neuer4/5
- N. Brown4/5
- N. Schlotterbeck3/5
Greece
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Tzolis5/5
- D. Kourbelis4/5
- P. Retsos4/5
- G. Vagiannidis3/5
- K. Koulierakis3/5
- K. Mavropanos3/5
- K. Tsimikas3/5
- K. Tzolakis3/5
- V. Pavlidis3/5
- A. Bakasetas2/5
- A. Douvikas2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Germany vs Greece prediction?
Our AI gives Germany a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Greece 37%. Germany are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Germany vs Greece?
1-1 (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%), 1-0 (7.2%) and 0-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Germany vs Greece?
The probability that both Germany and Greece score is 62%. Germany have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Greece 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Germany vs Greece?
The model expects 3.08 goals (1.57 for Germany, 1.51 for Greece). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Germany vs Greece played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Germany and Greece in?
Germany: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). Greece: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Greece?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Germany, 0 for Greece and 0 draws. The most recent ended Germany 2-1 Greece (Jun 7, 2024).
How is the Germany vs Greece prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Germany, 1.51 for Greece) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Germany predictions
- All Greece predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology