UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Denmark vs Wales: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Denmark 2-0 Wales. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Denmark at 47%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
Match analysis
Denmark and Wales met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen. Before kick-off, our model gave Denmark a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wales 29%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Wales have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Denmark therefore arrive in far better shape than Wales. On average Denmark score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Wales score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Denmark sit 3rd with 0 points from 1 games, Wales 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Denmark, 0 for Wales and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021). In double chance terms, "Denmark or draw" stands at 71%, "Wales or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Denmark are favourites for this Denmark v Wales, with a 47% win probability from our model. In the table, Denmark (3rd, 0 pts) host Wales (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Denmark – Wales. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Denmark 1-1 Wales | 11.0% |
| Denmark 2-1 Wales | 9.4% |
| Denmark 1-0 Wales | 8.5% |
| Denmark 2-0 Wales | 7.3% |
| Denmark 1-2 Wales | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.71 expected goals for Denmark and 1.29 for Wales, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 58% and "both teams to score" at 59%. Denmark keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Wales in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Denmark expected goals | 1.71 |
| Wales expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 28% |
| Wales clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-0 | W |
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wales | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2021 | Wales 0-4 Denmark | Euro Championship |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Wales 1-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Denmark 2-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Denmark
No absences reported.
Wales
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Maehle4/5
- P. Hojbjerg4/5
- A. Bah3/5
- J. Andersen3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hermansen3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- P. Dorgu3/5
- R. Hojlund3/5
- V. Froholdt3/5
- A. Christensen2/5
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Williams5/5
- D. Brooks4/5
- E. Ampadu4/5
- J. Dasilva4/5
- J. Rodon4/5
- J. Sheehan4/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- D. James3/5
- K. Darlow3/5
- B. Cabango2/5
- D. Lawlor2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
- Serbia 1-2 NetherlandsSep 27, 2026
- Austria 3-1 KosovoSep 27, 2026
- Gibraltar 0-0 AndorraSep 27, 2026
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Norway 1-2 PortugalSep 27, 2026
- Israel 0-3 IrelandSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Denmark vs Wales prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Denmark a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wales 29%. Denmark are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Denmark vs Wales?
1-1 (11.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.3%) and 1-2 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Denmark vs Wales?
The probability that both Denmark and Wales score is 59%. Denmark have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wales 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Denmark vs Wales?
The model expects 3.00 goals (1.71 for Denmark, 1.29 for Wales). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Denmark vs Wales played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen.
What form are Denmark and Wales in?
Denmark: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Wales: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Denmark and Wales?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Denmark, 0 for Wales and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021).
What was the Denmark vs Wales result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Denmark 2-0 Wales. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Denmark at 47%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
How is the Denmark vs Wales prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Denmark, 1.29 for Wales) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Denmark predictions
- All Wales predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology