UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Denmark vs Wales prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Denmark vs Wales match is scheduled on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Denmark start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; Wales are given 29% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Wales have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Denmark therefore arrive in far better shape than Wales. On average Denmark score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Wales score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Denmark sit 3rd with 0 points from 1 games, Wales 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Denmark, 0 for Wales and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021). In double chance terms, "Denmark or draw" stands at 71%, "Wales or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Denmark are favourites for this Denmark v Wales, with a 47% win probability from our model. In the table, Denmark (3rd, 0 pts) host Wales (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Denmark – Wales. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Denmark 1-1 Wales | 11.0% |
| Denmark 2-1 Wales | 9.4% |
| Denmark 1-0 Wales | 8.5% |
| Denmark 2-0 Wales | 7.3% |
| Denmark 1-2 Wales | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.71 expected goals for Denmark and 1.29 for Wales, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 58% and "both teams to score" at 59%. Denmark keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Wales in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Denmark expected goals | 1.71 |
| Wales expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 28% |
| Wales clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-0 | W |
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wales | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2021 | Wales 0-4 Denmark | Euro Championship |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Wales 1-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Denmark 2-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Denmark
No absences reported.
Wales
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Maehle4/5
- P. Hojbjerg4/5
- A. Bah3/5
- J. Andersen3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hermansen3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- P. Dorgu3/5
- R. Hojlund3/5
- V. Froholdt3/5
- A. Christensen2/5
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Williams5/5
- D. Brooks4/5
- E. Ampadu4/5
- J. Dasilva4/5
- J. Rodon4/5
- J. Sheehan4/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- D. James3/5
- K. Darlow3/5
- B. Cabango2/5
- D. Lawlor2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Denmark vs Wales prediction?
Our AI gives Denmark a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Wales 29%. Denmark are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Denmark vs Wales?
1-1 (11.0%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.3%) and 1-2 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Denmark vs Wales?
The probability that both Denmark and Wales score is 59%. Denmark have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wales 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Denmark vs Wales?
The model expects 3.00 goals (1.71 for Denmark, 1.29 for Wales). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 35%.
When and where is Denmark vs Wales played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Denmark and Wales in?
Denmark: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Wales: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Denmark and Wales?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Denmark, 0 for Wales and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021).
How is the Denmark vs Wales prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Denmark, 1.29 for Wales) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Denmark predictions
- All Wales predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology