UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Slovakia vs Moldova prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Slovakia take on Moldova on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. The edge goes to Slovakia (55%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Moldova win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Slovakia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Moldova have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Slovakia. On average Slovakia score 1.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Moldova score 1.20 and concede 2.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Slovakia and Moldova: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Slovakia or draw" stands at 79%, "Moldova or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Our model backs Slovakia to edge Moldova (55% probability). On recent form, Slovakia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Moldova have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Slovakia – Moldova. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Slovakia 1-0 Moldova | 11.7% |
| Slovakia 1-1 Moldova | 11.4% |
| Slovakia 2-0 Moldova | 10.0% |
| Slovakia 2-1 Moldova | 9.7% |
| Slovakia 0-0 Moldova | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.71 for Slovakia, 0.97 for Moldova): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Slovakia keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Moldova in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Slovakia expected goals | 1.71 |
| Moldova expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Slovakia clean sheet | 38% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Slovakia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Kosovo · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-4 | L |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Germany · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-6 | L |
Moldova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Moldova | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Slovakia and Moldova: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Slovakia
No absences reported.
Moldova
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Slovakia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obert5/5
- D. Strelec4/5
- O. Duda4/5
- D. Hancko3/5
- D. Vavro3/5
- L. Haraslin3/5
- M. Bero3/5
- M. Valjent3/5
- S. Lobotka3/5
- T. Suslov3/5
- L. Benes2/5
Moldova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Gherasimencov5/5
- V. Baboglo5/5
- D. Forov4/5
- I. Revenco4/5
- C. Cucos3/5
- P. Popescu3/5
- S. Perciun3/5
- V. Postolachi3/5
- D. Celeadnic2/5
- D. Puscas2/5
- E. Timbur2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Slovakia vs Moldova prediction?
Our AI gives Slovakia a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Moldova 21%. Slovakia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Slovakia vs Moldova?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Slovakia vs Moldova?
The probability that both Slovakia and Moldova score is 51%. Slovakia have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Moldova 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Slovakia vs Moldova?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.71 for Slovakia, 0.97 for Moldova). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Slovakia vs Moldova played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Slovakia and Moldova in?
Slovakia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded). Moldova: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 12 conceded).
How is the Slovakia vs Moldova prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Slovakia, 0.97 for Moldova) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Slovakia predictions
- All Moldova predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology