UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Iceland vs Estonia: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Iceland (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Iceland and Estonia met on Saturday, September 26, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavik. Before kick-off, our model gave Iceland a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Estonia 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Estonia therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Iceland score 0.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Estonia score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 0 for Estonia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023). In double chance terms, "Iceland or draw" stands at 72%, "Estonia or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Iceland are favourites for this Iceland v Estonia, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Iceland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Iceland – Estonia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iceland 1-1 Estonia | 12.2% |
| Iceland 1-0 Estonia | 10.9% |
| Iceland 2-1 Estonia | 9.2% |
| Iceland 2-0 Estonia | 8.2% |
| Iceland 0-1 Estonia | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.50 expected goals for Iceland and 1.12 for Estonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Iceland keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Estonia in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Iceland expected goals | 1.50 |
| Estonia expected goals | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 33% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Iceland
No absences reported.
Estonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- G. Sigurdsson2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hein2/5
- K. Kait2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Kuusk2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
- T. Tammik2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 KazakhstanSep 26, 2026
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- England 2-3 SpainSep 26, 2026
- Albania 2-0 BelarusSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Iceland vs Estonia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Iceland a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Estonia 28%. Iceland are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Iceland vs Estonia?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.2%) and 0-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Estonia?
The probability that both Iceland and Estonia score is 52%. Iceland have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estonia 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Iceland vs Estonia?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Estonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Iceland vs Estonia played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavik.
What form are Iceland and Estonia in?
Iceland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded). Estonia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Iceland and Estonia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 0 for Estonia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023).
What was the Iceland vs Estonia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Iceland (46%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Iceland vs Estonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Estonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Iceland predictions
- All Estonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology