UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Iceland vs Estonia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Iceland vs Estonia match is scheduled on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Iceland start as favourites with a 46% chance of victory; Estonia are given 28% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Estonia therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Iceland score 0.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Estonia score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 0 for Estonia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023). In double chance terms, "Iceland or draw" stands at 72%, "Estonia or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Iceland are favourites for this Iceland v Estonia, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Iceland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Iceland – Estonia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iceland 1-1 Estonia | 12.2% |
| Iceland 1-0 Estonia | 10.9% |
| Iceland 2-1 Estonia | 9.2% |
| Iceland 2-0 Estonia | 8.2% |
| Iceland 0-1 Estonia | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.50 expected goals for Iceland and 1.12 for Estonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Iceland keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Estonia in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Iceland expected goals | 1.50 |
| Estonia expected goals | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 33% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Iceland
No absences reported.
Estonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- G. Sigurdsson2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hein2/5
- K. Kait2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Kuusk2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
- T. Tammik2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Iceland vs Estonia prediction?
Our AI gives Iceland a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Estonia 28%. Iceland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Iceland vs Estonia?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.2%) and 0-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Iceland vs Estonia?
The probability that both Iceland and Estonia score is 52%. Iceland have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estonia 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Iceland vs Estonia?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Estonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Iceland vs Estonia played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Iceland and Estonia in?
Iceland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded). Estonia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Iceland and Estonia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 0 for Estonia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023).
How is the Iceland vs Estonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Iceland, 1.12 for Estonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Iceland predictions
- All Estonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology