UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
San Marino vs Finland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
San Marino take on Finland on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. San Marino start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; Finland are given 27% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).
San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Finland therefore arrive in far better shape than San Marino. On average San Marino score 0.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Finland score 1.60 and concede 1.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for San Marino, 2 for Finland and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Marino 1-2 Finland (Nov 20, 2023). In double chance terms, "San Marino or draw" stands at 73%, "Finland or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : San Marino are tipped by our AI model in this San Marino v Finland (47%). On recent form, San Marino are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as San Marino – Finland. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| San Marino 1-1 Finland | 12.2% |
| San Marino 1-0 Finland | 11.1% |
| San Marino 2-1 Finland | 9.3% |
| San Marino 2-0 Finland | 8.4% |
| San Marino 0-1 Finland | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.52 expected goals for San Marino and 1.10 for Finland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. San Marino keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Finland in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| San Marino expected goals | 1.52 |
| Finland expected goals | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 33% |
| Finland clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | San Marino 1-2 Finland | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Finland 6-0 San Marino | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Out and doubtful
San Marino
No absences reported.
Finland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Colombo5/5
- N. Giacopetti5/5
- A. Tosi4/5
- L. Capicchioni4/5
- M. Cevoli4/5
- N. Nanni4/5
- A. Golinucci3/5
- F. Fabbri3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- M. Pasolini3/5
- S. Pancotti3/5
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Markhiev4/5
- A. Suhonen4/5
- L. Walta4/5
- V. Koski4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo3/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- N. Alho3/5
- N. Skytta3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- O. Antman2/5
- T. Miettinen2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the San Marino vs Finland prediction?
Our AI gives San Marino a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Finland 27%. San Marino are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for San Marino vs Finland?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.4%) and 0-1 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in San Marino vs Finland?
The probability that both San Marino and Finland score is 52%. San Marino have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Finland 22%.
How many goals should we expect in San Marino vs Finland?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.52 for San Marino, 1.10 for Finland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is San Marino vs Finland played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are San Marino and Finland in?
San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 13 conceded). Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between San Marino and Finland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for San Marino, 2 for Finland and 0 draws. The most recent ended San Marino 1-2 Finland (Nov 20, 2023).
How is the San Marino vs Finland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for San Marino, 1.10 for Finland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All San Marino predictions
- All Finland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology