UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Slovenia vs Scotland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Slovenia vs Scotland match is scheduled on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time). It is a tight call: 36% for Slovenia, 30% for the draw and 33% for Scotland. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%) and 0-0 (12.7%).
Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Scotland therefore arrive in far better shape than Slovenia. On average Slovenia score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Scotland score 1.80 and concede 1.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Slovenia, 1 for Scotland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017). In double chance terms, "Slovenia or draw" stands at 67%, "Scotland or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Slovenia and Scotland: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Slovenia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Slovenia – Scotland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Slovenia 1-0 Scotland | 13.5% |
| Slovenia 1-1 Scotland | 13.5% |
| Slovenia 0-0 Scotland | 12.7% |
| Slovenia 0-1 Scotland | 12.7% |
| Slovenia 2-0 Scotland | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.06 expected goals for Slovenia and 1.00 for Scotland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 34% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Slovenia keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Scotland in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Slovenia expected goals | 1.06 |
| Scotland expected goals | 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 37% |
| Scotland clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Scotland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bolivia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Curaçao · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Scotland | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2017 | Slovenia 2-2 Scotland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2017 | Scotland 1-0 Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Slovenia
No absences reported.
Scotland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Sturm5/5
- J. Bijol5/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin4/5
- E. Janza4/5
- V. Drkusic4/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- I. Vekic3/5
- M. Ratnik3/5
- T. Elsnik3/5
- Z. Karnicnik3/5
- A. Sporar2/5
Scotland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Robertson5/5
- A. Gunn4/5
- B. Gannon-Doak4/5
- J. Hendry4/5
- L. Ferguson4/5
- L. Shankland4/5
- S. McTominay4/5
- A. Hickey3/5
- C. Adams3/5
- G. Hanley3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Slovenia vs Scotland prediction?
Our AI gives Slovenia a 36% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Scotland 33%. Slovenia are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Slovenia vs Scotland?
1-0 (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.7%) and 2-0 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Slovenia vs Scotland?
The probability that both Slovenia and Scotland score is 41%. Slovenia have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Scotland 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Slovenia vs Scotland?
The model expects 2.06 goals (1.06 for Slovenia, 1.00 for Scotland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 34%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Slovenia vs Scotland played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Slovenia and Scotland in?
Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Scotland: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Slovenia and Scotland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Slovenia, 1 for Scotland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017).
How is the Slovenia vs Scotland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.06 for Slovenia, 1.00 for Scotland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Slovenia predictions
- All Scotland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology