UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Hungary vs Ukraine: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Hungary 0-1 Ukraine. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hungary (39%), while victory for Ukraine was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
Match analysis
Hungary vs Ukraine was played on Friday, September 25, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Puskás Aréna, Budapest. Before kick-off, our model gave Hungary a 39% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Ukraine 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.6%), ahead of 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (12.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Hungary score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Ukraine score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Hungary and Ukraine: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Hungary or draw" stands at 68%, "Ukraine or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Hungary and Ukraine meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 30%). On recent form, Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Hungary – Ukraine. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hungary 1-0 Ukraine | 13.6% |
| Hungary 1-1 Ukraine | 13.4% |
| Hungary 0-0 Ukraine | 12.0% |
| Hungary 0-1 Ukraine | 11.9% |
| Hungary 2-0 Ukraine | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.12 goals in total (1.13 for Hungary, 0.99 for Ukraine): over 2.5 goals has a 36% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Hungary keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Ukraine in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Hungary expected goals | 1.13 |
| Ukraine expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Hungary clean sheet | 37% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Hungary
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Finland · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Hungary and Ukraine: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Hungary
No absences reported.
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Hungary
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Schafer5/5
- A. Toth5/5
- D. Szoboszlai5/5
- W. Orban5/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- M. Vitalis4/5
- R. Sallai4/5
- B. Toth3/5
- B. Varga3/5
- A. Osvath2/5
- B. Bolla2/5
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trubin4/5
- I. Zabarnyi4/5
- V. Mykolenko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- E. Sarapiy3/5
- G. Sudakov3/5
- M. Matviienko3/5
- R. Malinovskyi3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- Y. Yarmolyuk3/5
- I. Kaliuzhnyi2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Armenia 2-0 LatviaSep 25, 2026
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro 2-1 CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Italy 0-2 BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye 0-1 FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Sweden 2-1 RomaniaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Hungary vs Ukraine prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Hungary a 39% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Ukraine 32%. Hungary are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Hungary vs Ukraine?
1-0 (13.6%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.9%) and 2-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Hungary vs Ukraine?
The probability that both Hungary and Ukraine score is 43%. Hungary have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Ukraine 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Hungary vs Ukraine?
The model expects 2.12 goals (1.13 for Hungary, 0.99 for Ukraine). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Hungary vs Ukraine played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Puskás Aréna, Budapest.
What form are Hungary and Ukraine in?
Hungary: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Ukraine: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Hungary vs Ukraine result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Hungary 0-1 Ukraine. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hungary (39%), while victory for Ukraine was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
How is the Hungary vs Ukraine prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.13 for Hungary, 0.99 for Ukraine) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Hungary predictions
- All Ukraine predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology