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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Georgia vs Northern Ireland: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

GeorgiaGeorgia0 – 1Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Georgia (53%), while victory for Northern Ireland was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): correct.

Match analysis

Georgia and Northern Ireland met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi. Before kick-off, our model gave Georgia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Northern Ireland 19%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.3%), followed by 0-0 (12.6%) and 1-1 (12.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Georgia score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Northern Ireland score 0.80 and concede 1.20.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Georgia and Northern Ireland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Georgia or draw" stands at 81%, "Northern Ireland or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Georgia are favourites for this Georgia v Northern Ireland, with a 53% win probability from our model. On recent form, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Georgia (Win)
28%
Draw
19%
Northern Ireland (Win)

Double chance

81%
Georgia or draw
47%
Northern Ireland or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Georgia – Northern Ireland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Georgia 1-0 Northern Ireland17.3%
Georgia 0-0 Northern Ireland12.6%
Georgia 1-1 Northern Ireland12.1%
Georgia 2-0 Northern Ireland11.8%
Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.37 expected goals for Georgia and 0.70 for Northern Ireland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 34% and "both teams to score" at 38%. Few goals are expected here. Georgia keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, Northern Ireland in 25%.

Probability
Georgia expected goals1.37
Northern Ireland expected goals0.70
Both teams to score38%
Over 1.5 goals61%
Over 2.5 goals34%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Georgia clean sheet50%
Northern Ireland clean sheet25%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Georgia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 5, 2026Bahrain · International Friendlies2-0W
Jun 2, 2026Romania · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 29, 2026Lithuania · International Friendlies2-0W
Mar 26, 2026Israel · International Friendlies2-2D
Nov 18, 2025Bulgaria · World Cup - Qualification Europe1-2L

Northern Ireland

DateOpponentScore
Jun 8, 2026France · International Friendlies1-3L
Jun 4, 2026Guinea · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026Wales · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 26, 2026Italy · World Cup - Qualification Europe0-2L
Nov 17, 2025Luxembourg · World Cup - Qualification Europe1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Georgia400
Northern Ireland100

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Georgia and Northern Ireland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Georgia

No absences reported.

Northern Ireland

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Georgia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Giorgi Mamardashvili3/5
  • Gizo Mamageishvili3/5
  • Ilia Beriashvili3/5
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3/5
  • Luka Lochoshvili3/5
  • Otar Kiteishvili3/5
  • Anzor Mekvabishvili2/5
  • Georges Mikautadze2/5
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze2/5
  • Giorgi Kochorashvili2/5
  • Giorgi Kvilitaia2/5

Northern Ireland

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Galbraith3/5
  • I. Price3/5
  • J. Donley3/5
  • C. Brown2/5
  • C. Hazard2/5
  • Ciaron Brown2/5
  • Isaac Price2/5
  • J. Devenny2/5
  • Jamie Donley2/5
  • Justin Devenny2/5
  • P. McNair2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Georgia vs Northern Ireland prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Georgia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Northern Ireland 19%. Georgia are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Georgia vs Northern Ireland?

1-0 (17.3%), followed by 0-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.8%) and 0-1 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?

The probability that both Georgia and Northern Ireland score is 38%. Georgia have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Northern Ireland 25%.

How many goals should we expect in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?

The model expects 2.07 goals (1.37 for Georgia, 0.70 for Northern Ireland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 34%, over 3.5 goals 16%.

When and where is Georgia vs Northern Ireland played?

Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi.

What form are Georgia and Northern Ireland in?

Georgia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Northern Ireland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Georgia vs Northern Ireland result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Georgia (53%), while victory for Northern Ireland was rated at only 19%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (34%): correct.

How is the Georgia vs Northern Ireland prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.37 for Georgia, 0.70 for Northern Ireland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained