UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden vs Romania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Sweden take on Romania on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna. With a 67% win probability, Sweden go in as strong favourites against Romania (13%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Sweden have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Romania score 2.00 and concede 1.20.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019). In double chance terms, "Sweden or draw" stands at 87%, "Romania or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Sweden to edge Romania (67% probability). On recent form, Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 46%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sweden – Romania. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 2-0 Romania | 12.7% |
| Sweden 1-0 Romania | 12.5% |
| Sweden 2-1 Romania | 9.6% |
| Sweden 1-1 Romania | 9.5% |
| Sweden 3-0 Romania | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.79 goals in total (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 46%. Sweden keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Romania in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sweden expected goals | 2.03 |
| Romania expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 47% |
| Romania clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 7-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Romania | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2019 | Romania 0-2 Sweden | Euro Championship |
| Mar 23, 2019 | Sweden 2-1 Romania | Euro Championship |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Romania 1-0 Sweden | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Sweden
No absences reported.
Romania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- G. Gudmundsson5/5
- G. Lagerbielke5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- I. Hien4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- B. Nygren3/5
- K. Nordfeldt3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Dragomir4/5
- A. Ratiu3/5
- D. Birligea3/5
- D. Man3/5
- N. Bancu3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- S. Baiaram3/5
- V. Ghita3/5
- A. Burca2/5
- F. Tanase2/5
- I. Hagi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary – UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro – CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Italy – BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye – FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland – Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia – ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino – FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria – LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sweden vs Romania prediction?
Our AI gives Sweden a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Romania 13%. Sweden are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sweden vs Romania?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (12.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Romania?
The probability that both Sweden and Romania score is 46%. Sweden have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Romania 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Sweden vs Romania?
The model expects 2.79 goals (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Sweden vs Romania played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna.
What form are Sweden and Romania in?
Sweden: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded). Romania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sweden and Romania?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019).
How is the Sweden vs Romania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sweden predictions
- All Romania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology