UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden vs Romania: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sweden 2-1 Romania. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
Sweden vs Romania was played on Friday, September 25, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna. Before kick-off, our model gave Sweden a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Romania 13%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Sweden have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Romania score 2.00 and concede 1.20.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019). In double chance terms, "Sweden or draw" stands at 87%, "Romania or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Sweden to edge Romania (67% probability). On recent form, Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 46%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sweden – Romania. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 2-0 Romania | 12.7% |
| Sweden 1-0 Romania | 12.5% |
| Sweden 2-1 Romania | 9.6% |
| Sweden 1-1 Romania | 9.5% |
| Sweden 3-0 Romania | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.79 goals in total (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 46%. Sweden keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Romania in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sweden expected goals | 2.03 |
| Romania expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 47% |
| Romania clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 7-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Romania | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2019 | Romania 0-2 Sweden | Euro Championship |
| Mar 23, 2019 | Sweden 2-1 Romania | Euro Championship |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Romania 1-0 Sweden | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Sweden
No absences reported.
Romania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- G. Gudmundsson5/5
- G. Lagerbielke5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- I. Hien4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- B. Nygren3/5
- K. Nordfeldt3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Dragomir4/5
- A. Ratiu3/5
- D. Birligea3/5
- D. Man3/5
- N. Bancu3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- S. Baiaram3/5
- V. Ghita3/5
- A. Burca2/5
- F. Tanase2/5
- I. Hagi2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Armenia 2-0 LatviaSep 25, 2026
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary 0-1 UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro 2-1 CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Italy 0-2 BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye 0-1 FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sweden vs Romania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sweden a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Romania 13%. Sweden are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Sweden vs Romania?
2-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (12.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Romania?
The probability that both Sweden and Romania score is 46%. Sweden have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Romania 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Sweden vs Romania?
The model expects 2.79 goals (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Sweden vs Romania played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna.
What form are Sweden and Romania in?
Sweden: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded). Romania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sweden and Romania?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Romania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019).
What was the Sweden vs Romania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sweden 2-1 Romania. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the Sweden vs Romania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.03 for Sweden, 0.76 for Romania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sweden predictions
- All Romania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology