UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Türkiye vs France prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Türkiye vs France match is scheduled on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Turka Kocaeli Stadium, Izmit. Our model makes France clear favourites: a 74% chance of winning, against 16% for the draw and 10% for Türkiye. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%) and 0-3 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Türkiye score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; France score 2.00 and concede 1.60. Over their recent games, Türkiye have averaged 2.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.30 for France.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Türkiye (Oct 14, 2019). In double chance terms, "Türkiye or draw" stands at 26%, "France or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : France are tipped by our AI model in this Türkiye v France (74%). On recent form, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while France have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Türkiye – France. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Türkiye 0-2 France | 11.9% |
| Türkiye 0-1 France | 9.7% |
| Türkiye 0-3 France | 9.7% |
| Türkiye 1-2 France | 9.3% |
| Türkiye 1-1 France | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.78 expected goals for Türkiye and 2.44 for France, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Goals look likely in this one. Türkiye keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, France in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Türkiye expected goals | 0.78 |
| France expected goals | 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 9% |
| France clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2019 | France 1-1 Türkiye | Euro Championship |
| Jun 8, 2019 | Türkiye 2-0 France | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Türkiye
No absences reported.
France
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- E. Elmali3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- O. Kabak3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- D. Gul2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rabiot4/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- J. Kounde4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- L. Digne4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- O. Dembele4/5
- W. Saliba4/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Türkiye vs France prediction?
Our AI gives Türkiye a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and France 74%. France are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Türkiye vs France?
0-2 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%), 0-3 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs France?
The probability that both Türkiye and France score is 49%. Türkiye have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Türkiye vs France?
The model expects 3.22 goals (0.78 for Türkiye, 2.44 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Türkiye vs France played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Turka Kocaeli Stadium, Izmit.
What form are Türkiye and France in?
Türkiye: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and France?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Türkiye (Oct 14, 2019).
How is the Türkiye vs France prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for Türkiye, 2.44 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Türkiye predictions
- All France predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology