UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Türkiye vs France: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Türkiye 0-1 France. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 74%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
Match analysis
Türkiye and France met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli. Before kick-off, our model gave Türkiye a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and France 74%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%) and 0-3 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Türkiye score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; France score 2.00 and concede 1.60. Over their recent games, Türkiye have averaged 2.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.30 for France.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Türkiye (Oct 14, 2019). In double chance terms, "Türkiye or draw" stands at 26%, "France or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : France are tipped by our AI model in this Türkiye v France (74%). On recent form, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while France have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Türkiye – France. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Türkiye 0-2 France | 11.9% |
| Türkiye 0-1 France | 9.7% |
| Türkiye 0-3 France | 9.7% |
| Türkiye 1-2 France | 9.3% |
| Türkiye 1-1 France | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.78 expected goals for Türkiye and 2.44 for France, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Goals look likely in this one. Türkiye keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, France in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Türkiye expected goals | 0.78 |
| France expected goals | 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 9% |
| France clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2019 | France 1-1 Türkiye | Euro Championship |
| Jun 8, 2019 | Türkiye 2-0 France | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Türkiye
No absences reported.
France
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- E. Elmali3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- O. Kabak3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- D. Gul2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rabiot4/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- J. Kounde4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- L. Digne4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- O. Dembele4/5
- W. Saliba4/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Armenia 2-0 LatviaSep 25, 2026
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary 0-1 UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro 2-1 CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Italy 0-2 BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Sweden 2-1 RomaniaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Türkiye vs France prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Türkiye a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and France 74%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Türkiye vs France?
0-2 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (9.7%), 0-3 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs France?
The probability that both Türkiye and France score is 49%. Türkiye have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Türkiye vs France?
The model expects 3.22 goals (0.78 for Türkiye, 2.44 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Türkiye vs France played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli.
What form are Türkiye and France in?
Türkiye: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and France?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Türkiye, 0 for France and 1 draw. The most recent ended France 1-1 Türkiye (Oct 14, 2019).
What was the Türkiye vs France result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Türkiye 0-1 France. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 74%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
How is the Türkiye vs France prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for Türkiye, 2.44 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Türkiye predictions
- All France predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology