UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bulgaria (41%), while victory for Luxembourg was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
Match analysis
Bulgaria and Luxembourg met on Saturday, September 26, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), Gabrovo. Before kick-off, our model gave Bulgaria a 41% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Luxembourg 28%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%) and 0-0 (13.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bulgaria score 3.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 0.40.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bulgaria, 0 for Luxembourg and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Bulgaria or draw" stands at 72%, "Luxembourg or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Bulgaria are tipped by our AI model in this Bulgaria v Luxembourg (41%). On recent form, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bulgaria – Luxembourg. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 62% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria 1-0 Luxembourg | 15.0% |
| Bulgaria 1-1 Luxembourg | 13.3% |
| Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | 13.1% |
| Bulgaria 0-1 Luxembourg | 11.7% |
| Bulgaria 2-0 Luxembourg | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.14 expected goals for Bulgaria and 0.89 for Luxembourg, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Bulgaria keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Luxembourg in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.14 |
| Luxembourg expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 41% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | International Friendlies |
| Oct 10, 2017 | Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Velkovski3/5
- F. Krastev3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- D. Mitov2/5
- D. Naumov2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
- H. Petrov2/5
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Martins3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- A. Dardari2/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Aiman Dardari2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Iceland 1-1 EstoniaSep 26, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 KazakhstanSep 26, 2026
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- England 2-3 SpainSep 26, 2026
- Albania 2-0 BelarusSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bulgaria a 41% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Luxembourg 28%. Bulgaria are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
1-0 (15.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%) and 2-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The probability that both Bulgaria and Luxembourg score is 40%. Bulgaria have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Luxembourg 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The model expects 2.03 goals (1.14 for Bulgaria, 0.89 for Luxembourg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Bulgaria vs Luxembourg played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), Gabrovo.
What form are Bulgaria and Luxembourg in?
Bulgaria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded). Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bulgaria and Luxembourg?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bulgaria, 0 for Luxembourg and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024).
What was the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bulgaria (41%), while victory for Luxembourg was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
How is the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.14 for Bulgaria, 0.89 for Luxembourg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bulgaria predictions
- All Luxembourg predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology