UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bulgaria take on Luxembourg on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Bulgaria start as favourites with a 52% chance of victory; Luxembourg are given 23% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bulgaria score 3.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 0.40.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bulgaria, 0 for Luxembourg and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Bulgaria or draw" stands at 77%, "Luxembourg or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Bulgaria are tipped by our AI model in this Bulgaria v Luxembourg (52%). On recent form, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bulgaria – Luxembourg. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria 1-1 Luxembourg | 11.7% |
| Bulgaria 1-0 Luxembourg | 11.5% |
| Bulgaria 2-1 Luxembourg | 9.6% |
| Bulgaria 2-0 Luxembourg | 9.4% |
| Bulgaria 0-1 Luxembourg | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for Bulgaria and 1.02 for Luxembourg, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Bulgaria keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Luxembourg in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.64 |
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 36% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | International Friendlies |
| Oct 10, 2017 | Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Velkovski3/5
- F. Krastev3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- D. Mitov2/5
- D. Naumov2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
- H. Petrov2/5
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Martins3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- A. Dardari2/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Aiman Dardari2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction?
Our AI gives Bulgaria a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Luxembourg 23%. Bulgaria are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.4%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The probability that both Bulgaria and Luxembourg score is 52%. Bulgaria have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Luxembourg 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.64 for Bulgaria, 1.02 for Luxembourg). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Bulgaria vs Luxembourg played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Bulgaria and Luxembourg in?
Bulgaria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded). Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bulgaria and Luxembourg?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bulgaria, 0 for Luxembourg and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024).
How is the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Bulgaria, 1.02 for Luxembourg) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bulgaria predictions
- All Luxembourg predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology