UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
England vs Spain: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: England 2-3 Spain. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (69%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): correct.
Match analysis
England vs Spain was played on Saturday, September 26, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Wembley Stadium, London. Before kick-off, our model gave England a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spain 43%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.0%), ahead of 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, England have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average England score 2.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.20. Over their recent games, England have averaged 1.55 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for Spain.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for England, 2 for Spain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Spain 2-1 England (Jul 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "England or draw" stands at 57%, "Spain or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this England v Spain (43%). On recent form, England are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as England – Spain. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| England 1-1 Spain | 9.0% |
| England 1-2 Spain | 8.4% |
| England 2-1 Spain | 7.6% |
| England 2-2 Spain | 7.1% |
| England 0-1 Spain | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.56 goals in total (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain): over 2.5 goals has a 69% probability and both teams to score 69%. Everything points to an open game. England keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Spain in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| England expected goals | 1.69 |
| Spain expected goals | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| England clean sheet | 15% |
| Spain clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 6-4 | W |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | DR Congo · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2024 | Spain 2-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Oct 15, 2018 | Spain 2-3 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | England 1-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
England
No absences reported.
Spain
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
England
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Anderson4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- J. Pickford4/5
- M. Guehi4/5
- A. Gordon3/5
- E. Konsa3/5
- N. O'Reilly3/5
- D. Spence2/5
- J. Stones2/5
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- D. Olmo4/5
- M. Cucurella4/5
- M. Oyarzabal4/5
- P. Cubarsi4/5
- P. Porro4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- F. Ruiz2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
- Iceland 1-1 EstoniaSep 26, 2026
- Faroe Islands 1-1 KazakhstanSep 26, 2026
- Slovakia 2-0 MoldovaSep 26, 2026
- Czechia 1-2 CroatiaSep 26, 2026
- North Macedonia 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 26, 2026
- Albania 2-0 BelarusSep 26, 2026
- Lithuania 1-1 AzerbaijanSep 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the England vs Spain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave England a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spain 43%. Spain are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for England vs Spain?
1-1 (9.0%), followed by 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.1%) and 0-1 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in England vs Spain?
The probability that both England and Spain score is 69%. England have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 19%.
How many goals should we expect in England vs Spain?
The model expects 3.56 goals (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is England vs Spain played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Wembley Stadium, London.
What form are England and Spain in?
England: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 10 conceded). Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between England and Spain?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for England, 2 for Spain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Spain 2-1 England (Jul 14, 2024).
What was the England vs Spain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: England 2-3 Spain. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (43%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (69%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): correct.
How is the England vs Spain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All England predictions
- All Spain predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology