UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
England vs Spain prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
England take on Spain on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives England 35%, Spain 43% and the draw 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.0%), ahead of 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, England have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average England score 2.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.20. Over their recent games, England have averaged 1.55 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for Spain.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for England, 2 for Spain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Spain 2-1 England (Jul 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "England or draw" stands at 57%, "Spain or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this England v Spain (43%). On recent form, England are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as England – Spain. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| England 1-1 Spain | 9.0% |
| England 1-2 Spain | 8.4% |
| England 2-1 Spain | 7.6% |
| England 2-2 Spain | 7.1% |
| England 0-1 Spain | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.56 goals in total (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain): over 2.5 goals has a 69% probability and both teams to score 69%. Everything points to an open game. England keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Spain in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| England expected goals | 1.69 |
| Spain expected goals | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| England clean sheet | 15% |
| Spain clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 6-4 | W |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | DR Congo · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2024 | Spain 2-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Oct 15, 2018 | Spain 2-3 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | England 1-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
England
No absences reported.
Spain
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
England
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rice4/5
- E. Anderson4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- J. Pickford4/5
- M. Guehi4/5
- A. Gordon3/5
- E. Konsa3/5
- N. O'Reilly3/5
- D. Spence2/5
- J. Stones2/5
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- D. Olmo4/5
- M. Cucurella4/5
- M. Oyarzabal4/5
- P. Cubarsi4/5
- P. Porro4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- F. Ruiz2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the England vs Spain prediction?
Our AI gives England a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spain 43%. Spain are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for England vs Spain?
1-1 (9.0%), followed by 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.1%) and 0-1 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in England vs Spain?
The probability that both England and Spain score is 69%. England have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 19%.
How many goals should we expect in England vs Spain?
The model expects 3.56 goals (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is England vs Spain played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are England and Spain in?
England: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 10 conceded). Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between England and Spain?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for England, 2 for Spain and 0 draws. The most recent ended Spain 2-1 England (Jul 14, 2024).
How is the England vs Spain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for England, 1.87 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All England predictions
- All Spain predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology