UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Montenegro vs Cyprus match is scheduled on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stadion pod Goricom, Podgorica. Montenegro start as favourites with a 59% chance of victory; Cyprus are given 17% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (12.2%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Cyprus score 1.60 and concede 1.60.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Montenegro, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus (Nov 17, 2020). In double chance terms, "Montenegro or draw" stands at 83%, "Cyprus or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Montenegro are tipped by our AI model in this Montenegro v Cyprus (59%). On recent form, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montenegro – Cyprus. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montenegro 1-0 Cyprus | 14.5% |
| Montenegro 2-0 Cyprus | 12.2% |
| Montenegro 1-1 Cyprus | 11.2% |
| Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus | 9.4% |
| Montenegro 0-0 Cyprus | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.68 expected goals for Montenegro and 0.77 for Cyprus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Montenegro keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Cyprus in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.68 |
| Cyprus expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 46% |
| Cyprus clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Cyprus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Estonia · International Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyprus | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2020 | Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 5, 2020 | Cyprus 0-2 Montenegro | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 23, 2018 | Cyprus 0-0 Montenegro | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Cyprus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bulatovic3/5
- A. Marusic3/5
- M. Jankovic3/5
- M. Osmajic3/5
- Balša Popović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- Igor Vujačić2/5
- Milan Vukotić2/5
- N. Krstovic2/5
- S. Haksabanovic2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
Cyprus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andronikos Kakoullis3/5
- Giannis Satsias3/5
- Stelios Andreou3/5
- A. Shikkis2/5
- C. Sielis2/5
- Charalampos Kyriakou2/5
- G. Kastanos2/5
- G. Malekkidis2/5
- Grigoris Kastanos2/5
- I. Pittas2/5
- Ioannis Pittas2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction?
Our AI gives Montenegro a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cyprus 17%. Montenegro are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Montenegro vs Cyprus?
1-0 (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
The probability that both Montenegro and Cyprus score is 44%. Montenegro have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cyprus 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
The model expects 2.45 goals (1.68 for Montenegro, 0.77 for Cyprus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Montenegro vs Cyprus played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion pod Goricom, Podgorica.
What form are Montenegro and Cyprus in?
Montenegro: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Cyprus: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montenegro and Cyprus?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Montenegro, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus (Nov 17, 2020).
How is the Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.68 for Montenegro, 0.77 for Cyprus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montenegro predictions
- All Cyprus predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology