UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Montenegro vs Cyprus: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 59%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Montenegro and Cyprus met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadion pod Goricom, Podgorica. Before kick-off, our model gave Montenegro a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cyprus 17%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (12.2%) and 1-1 (11.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Cyprus score 1.60 and concede 1.60.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Montenegro, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus (Nov 17, 2020). In double chance terms, "Montenegro or draw" stands at 83%, "Cyprus or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Montenegro are tipped by our AI model in this Montenegro v Cyprus (59%). On recent form, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Cyprus have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montenegro – Cyprus. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montenegro 1-0 Cyprus | 14.5% |
| Montenegro 2-0 Cyprus | 12.2% |
| Montenegro 1-1 Cyprus | 11.2% |
| Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus | 9.4% |
| Montenegro 0-0 Cyprus | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.68 expected goals for Montenegro and 0.77 for Cyprus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Montenegro keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Cyprus in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.68 |
| Cyprus expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 46% |
| Cyprus clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Cyprus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Estonia · International Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyprus | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2020 | Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 5, 2020 | Cyprus 0-2 Montenegro | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 23, 2018 | Cyprus 0-0 Montenegro | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Cyprus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bulatovic3/5
- A. Marusic3/5
- M. Jankovic3/5
- M. Osmajic3/5
- Balša Popović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- Igor Vujačić2/5
- Milan Vukotić2/5
- N. Krstovic2/5
- S. Haksabanovic2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
Cyprus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andronikos Kakoullis3/5
- Giannis Satsias3/5
- Stelios Andreou3/5
- A. Shikkis2/5
- C. Sielis2/5
- Charalampos Kyriakou2/5
- G. Kastanos2/5
- G. Malekkidis2/5
- Grigoris Kastanos2/5
- I. Pittas2/5
- Ioannis Pittas2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Armenia 2-0 LatviaSep 25, 2026
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary 0-1 UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Italy 0-2 BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye 0-1 FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Sweden 2-1 RomaniaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Montenegro a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cyprus 17%. Montenegro are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Montenegro vs Cyprus?
1-0 (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
The probability that both Montenegro and Cyprus score is 44%. Montenegro have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cyprus 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
The model expects 2.45 goals (1.68 for Montenegro, 0.77 for Cyprus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Montenegro vs Cyprus played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion pod Goricom, Podgorica.
What form are Montenegro and Cyprus in?
Montenegro: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Cyprus: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montenegro and Cyprus?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Montenegro, 0 for Cyprus and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 4-0 Cyprus (Nov 17, 2020).
What was the Montenegro vs Cyprus result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Montenegro at 59%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.68 for Montenegro, 0.77 for Cyprus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montenegro predictions
- All Cyprus predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology