UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Italy vs Belgium: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Italy 0-2 Belgium. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Italy (43%), while victory for Belgium was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.
Match analysis
Italy and Belgium met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave Italy a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Belgium 31%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 0-1 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Italy score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.20.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Italy, 0 for Belgium and 1 draw. The most recent ended Belgium 0-1 Italy (Nov 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "Italy or draw" stands at 69%, "Belgium or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Italy to edge Belgium (43% probability). On recent form, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Italy – Belgium. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Italy 1-1 Belgium | 12.7% |
| Italy 1-0 Belgium | 11.2% |
| Italy 0-1 Belgium | 9.2% |
| Italy 2-1 Belgium | 8.7% |
| Italy 0-0 Belgium | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.38 expected goals for Italy and 1.13 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Italy keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Belgium in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Italy expected goals | 1.38 |
| Belgium expected goals | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Italy clean sheet | 32% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | Belgium 0-1 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Italy 2-2 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Italy 2-1 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2021 | Belgium 1-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
| Jun 13, 2016 | Belgium 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Italy
No absences reported.
Belgium
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- F. Dimarco3/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Locatelli3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- M. Retegui3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele4/5
- L. Trossard4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- K. De Bruyne3/5
- T. Castagne3/5
- A. Theate2/5
- H. Vanaken2/5
- J. Doku2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Armenia 2-0 LatviaSep 25, 2026
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary 0-1 UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro 2-1 CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye 0-1 FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Sweden 2-1 RomaniaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Italy vs Belgium prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Italy a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Belgium 31%. Italy are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Italy vs Belgium?
1-1 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 0-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Italy vs Belgium?
The probability that both Italy and Belgium score is 51%. Italy have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Italy vs Belgium?
The model expects 2.51 goals (1.38 for Italy, 1.13 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Italy vs Belgium played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are Italy and Belgium in?
Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and Belgium?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Italy, 0 for Belgium and 1 draw. The most recent ended Belgium 0-1 Italy (Nov 14, 2024).
What was the Italy vs Belgium result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Italy 0-2 Belgium. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Italy (43%), while victory for Belgium was rated at only 31%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.
How is the Italy vs Belgium prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Italy, 1.13 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Italy predictions
- All Belgium predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology