UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Italy vs Belgium prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Italy vs Belgium match is scheduled on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. It is a tight call: 43% for Italy, 27% for the draw and 31% for Belgium. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 0-1 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Italy score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.20.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Italy, 0 for Belgium and 1 draw. The most recent ended Belgium 0-1 Italy (Nov 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "Italy or draw" stands at 69%, "Belgium or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Italy to edge Belgium (43% probability). On recent form, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Italy – Belgium. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Italy 1-1 Belgium | 12.7% |
| Italy 1-0 Belgium | 11.2% |
| Italy 0-1 Belgium | 9.2% |
| Italy 2-1 Belgium | 8.7% |
| Italy 0-0 Belgium | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.38 expected goals for Italy and 1.13 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Italy keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Belgium in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Italy expected goals | 1.38 |
| Belgium expected goals | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Italy clean sheet | 32% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | Belgium 0-1 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Italy 2-2 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Italy 2-1 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2021 | Belgium 1-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
| Jun 13, 2016 | Belgium 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Italy
No absences reported.
Belgium
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- F. Dimarco3/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Locatelli3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- M. Retegui3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele4/5
- L. Trossard4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- K. De Bruyne3/5
- T. Castagne3/5
- A. Theate2/5
- H. Vanaken2/5
- J. Doku2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Italy vs Belgium prediction?
Our AI gives Italy a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Belgium 31%. Italy are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Italy vs Belgium?
1-1 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 0-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Italy vs Belgium?
The probability that both Italy and Belgium score is 51%. Italy have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Italy vs Belgium?
The model expects 2.51 goals (1.38 for Italy, 1.13 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Italy vs Belgium played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are Italy and Belgium in?
Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and Belgium?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Italy, 0 for Belgium and 1 draw. The most recent ended Belgium 0-1 Italy (Nov 14, 2024).
How is the Italy vs Belgium prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Italy, 1.13 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Italy predictions
- All Belgium predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology