UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Poland take on Bosnia & Herzegovina on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw. With a 67% win probability, Poland go in as strong favourites against Bosnia & Herzegovina (10%), with the draw rated at 23%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (19.9%), ahead of 2-0 (16.5%) and 0-0 (12.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Bosnia & Herzegovina have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Poland score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.20 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Poland, 0 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020). In double chance terms, "Poland or draw" stands at 90%, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Poland to edge Bosnia & Herzegovina (67% probability). On recent form, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Poland – Bosnia & Herzegovina. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Poland 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 19.9% |
| Poland 2-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 16.5% |
| Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 12.0% |
| Poland 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 9.2% |
| Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.12 goals in total (1.66 for Poland, 0.46 for Bosnia & Herzegovina): over 2.5 goals has a 36% probability and both teams to score 30%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Poland keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Bosnia & Herzegovina in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Poland expected goals | 1.66 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals | 0.46 |
| Both teams to score | 30% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Poland clean sheet | 63% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-2 | W |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2020 | Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2020 | Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-2 Poland | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Poland
No absences reported.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Zielinski5/5
- R. Lewandowski5/5
- J. Kaminski4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- N. Zalewski4/5
- P. Wisniewski4/5
- S. Szymanski4/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- K. Grabara3/5
- T. Kedziora3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Demirovic5/5
- N. Katic5/5
- N. Vasilj5/5
- S. Kolasinac5/5
- A. Dedic4/5
- K. Alajbegovic4/5
- T. Muharemovic4/5
- B. Tahirovic3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic3/5
- E. Dzeko3/5
- I. Basic3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction?
Our AI gives Poland a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 10%. Poland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
1-0 (19.9%), followed by 2-0 (16.5%), 0-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The probability that both Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina score is 30%. Poland have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The model expects 2.12 goals (1.66 for Poland, 0.46 for Bosnia & Herzegovina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw.
What form are Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina in?
Poland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Poland, 0 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020).
How is the Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Poland, 0.46 for Bosnia & Herzegovina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Poland predictions
- All Bosnia & Herzegovina predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology