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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)· Match in progress

Armenia vs Latvia prediction: correct score and AI tips

ArmeniaArmenia–LatviaLatvia

Match analysis

Armenia take on Latvia on Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Armenia start as favourites with a 53% chance of victory; Latvia are given 20% and the draw 27%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (11.4%).

Armenia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Latvia therefore arrive in far better shape than Armenia. On average Armenia score 0.80 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Latvia score 0.80 and concede 0.80.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Armenia, 1 for Latvia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Latvia 1-2 Armenia (Nov 17, 2024). In double chance terms, "Armenia or draw" stands at 80%, "Latvia or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 73%.

In short : Armenia are tipped by our AI model in this Armenia v Latvia (53%). On recent form, Armenia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Armenia (Win)
27%
Draw
20%
Latvia (Win)

Double chance

80%
Armenia or draw
47%
Latvia or draw
73%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Armenia – Latvia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Armenia 1-0 Latvia15.8%
Armenia 1-1 Latvia12.2%
Armenia 2-0 Latvia11.4%
Armenia 0-0 Latvia11.0%
Armenia 2-1 Latvia8.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.44 expected goals for Armenia and 0.77 for Latvia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 38% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Armenia keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Latvia in 24%.

Probability
Armenia expected goals1.44
Latvia expected goals0.77
Both teams to score41%
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Armenia clean sheet46%
Latvia clean sheet24%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Armenia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 9, 2026Moldova · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Kazakhstan · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 29, 2026Belarus · International Friendlies1-2L
Nov 16, 2025Portugal · World Cup - Qualification Europe1-9L
Nov 13, 2025Hungary · World Cup - Qualification Europe0-1L

Latvia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 9, 2026Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup0-1L
Jun 6, 2026Lithuania · Baltic Cup1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Mar 26, 2026Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Nov 16, 2025Serbia · World Cup - Qualification Europe1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Armenia100
Latvia200

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 17, 2024Latvia 1-2 ArmeniaUEFA Nations League
Sep 7, 2024Armenia 4-1 LatviaUEFA Nations League
Oct 12, 2023Latvia 2-0 ArmeniaEuro Championship - Qualification
Jun 19, 2023Armenia 2-1 LatviaEuro Championship - Qualification

Out and doubtful

Armenia

No absences reported.

Latvia

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Armenia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • K. Hovhannisyan6/5
  • N. Tiknizyan5/5
  • E. Piloyan4/5
  • E. Spertsyan4/5
  • G. Ranos4/5
  • G. Harutyunyan3/5
  • H. Avagyan3/5
  • Junior Julio3/5
  • S. Muradyan3/5
  • A. Miranyan2/5
  • A. Serobyan2/5

Latvia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • L. Vapne3/5
  • R. Jurkovskis3/5
  • R. Savalnieks3/5
  • A. Cernomordijs2/5
  • A. Ciganiks2/5
  • Andrejs Cigaņiks2/5
  • Antonijs Černomordijs2/5
  • D. Melniks2/5
  • Dmitrijs Zelenkovs2/5
  • E. Emsis2/5
  • F. Orols2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Armenia vs Latvia prediction?

Our AI gives Armenia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Latvia 20%. Armenia are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Armenia vs Latvia?

1-0 (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (8.8%).

Will both teams score in Armenia vs Latvia?

The probability that both Armenia and Latvia score is 41%. Armenia have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Latvia 24%.

How many goals should we expect in Armenia vs Latvia?

The model expects 2.21 goals (1.44 for Armenia, 0.77 for Latvia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 18%.

When and where is Armenia vs Latvia played?

Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.

What form are Armenia and Latvia in?

Armenia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded). Latvia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Armenia and Latvia?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Armenia, 1 for Latvia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Latvia 1-2 Armenia (Nov 17, 2024).

How is the Armenia vs Latvia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Armenia, 0.77 for Latvia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained