UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Friday, September 25, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Armenia vs Latvia: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Armenia 2-0 Latvia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Armenia at 53%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
Match analysis
Armenia and Latvia met on Friday, September 25, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan. Before kick-off, our model gave Armenia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Latvia 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.2%) and 2-0 (11.4%).
Armenia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Latvia therefore arrive in far better shape than Armenia. On average Armenia score 0.80 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Latvia score 0.80 and concede 0.80.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Armenia, 1 for Latvia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Latvia 1-2 Armenia (Nov 17, 2024). In double chance terms, "Armenia or draw" stands at 80%, "Latvia or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Armenia are tipped by our AI model in this Armenia v Latvia (53%). On recent form, Armenia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Latvia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Armenia – Latvia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Armenia 1-0 Latvia | 15.8% |
| Armenia 1-1 Latvia | 12.2% |
| Armenia 2-0 Latvia | 11.4% |
| Armenia 0-0 Latvia | 11.0% |
| Armenia 2-1 Latvia | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.44 expected goals for Armenia and 0.77 for Latvia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 38% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Armenia keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Latvia in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Armenia expected goals | 1.44 |
| Latvia expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Armenia clean sheet | 46% |
| Latvia clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-9 | L |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Latvia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Gibraltar · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Serbia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | Latvia 1-2 Armenia | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Armenia 4-1 Latvia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Latvia 2-0 Armenia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 19, 2023 | Armenia 2-1 Latvia | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Out and doubtful
Armenia
No absences reported.
Latvia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Armenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hovhannisyan6/5
- N. Tiknizyan5/5
- E. Piloyan4/5
- E. Spertsyan4/5
- G. Ranos4/5
- G. Harutyunyan3/5
- H. Avagyan3/5
- Junior Julio3/5
- S. Muradyan3/5
- A. Miranyan2/5
- A. Serobyan2/5
Latvia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Vapne3/5
- R. Jurkovskis3/5
- R. Savalnieks3/5
- A. Cernomordijs2/5
- A. Ciganiks2/5
- Andrejs Cigaņiks2/5
- Antonijs Černomordijs2/5
- D. Melniks2/5
- Dmitrijs Zelenkovs2/5
- E. Emsis2/5
- F. Orols2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Georgia 0-1 Northern IrelandSep 25, 2026
- Hungary 0-1 UkraineSep 25, 2026
- Montenegro 2-1 CyprusSep 25, 2026
- Italy 0-2 BelgiumSep 25, 2026
- Türkiye 0-1 FranceSep 25, 2026
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 25, 2026
- Sweden 2-1 RomaniaSep 25, 2026
- Slovenia 0-0 ScotlandSep 26, 2026
- San Marino 0-7 FinlandSep 26, 2026
- Bulgaria 1-2 LuxembourgSep 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Armenia vs Latvia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Armenia a 53% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Latvia 20%. Armenia are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Armenia vs Latvia?
1-0 (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Armenia vs Latvia?
The probability that both Armenia and Latvia score is 41%. Armenia have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Latvia 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Armenia vs Latvia?
The model expects 2.21 goals (1.44 for Armenia, 0.77 for Latvia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Armenia vs Latvia played?
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan.
What form are Armenia and Latvia in?
Armenia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded). Latvia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Armenia and Latvia?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Armenia, 1 for Latvia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Latvia 1-2 Armenia (Nov 17, 2024).
What was the Armenia vs Latvia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Armenia 2-0 Latvia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Armenia at 53%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
How is the Armenia vs Latvia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Armenia, 0.77 for Latvia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Armenia predictions
- All Latvia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology