UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Northern Ireland vs Hungary prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Northern Ireland vs Hungary match is scheduled on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 66% win probability, Northern Ireland go in as strong favourites against Hungary (14%), with the draw rated at 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Hungary. On average Northern Ireland score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Hungary score 1.60 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Northern Ireland and Hungary: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Northern Ireland or draw" stands at 86%, "Hungary or draw" at 34% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Northern Ireland are favourites for this Northern Ireland v Hungary, with a 66% win probability from our model. On recent form, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Northern Ireland – Hungary. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland 2-0 Hungary | 12.0% |
| Northern Ireland 1-0 Hungary | 11.7% |
| Northern Ireland 2-1 Hungary | 9.7% |
| Northern Ireland 1-1 Hungary | 9.5% |
| Northern Ireland 3-0 Hungary | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.87 goals in total (2.06 for Northern Ireland, 0.81 for Hungary): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 48%. Northern Ireland keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Hungary in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland expected goals | 2.06 |
| Hungary expected goals | 0.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Northern Ireland clean sheet | 45% |
| Hungary clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Northern Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-0 | W |
Hungary
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Finland · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Hungary | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Northern Ireland and Hungary: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Northern Ireland
No absences reported.
Hungary
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Northern Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Galbraith3/5
- I. Price3/5
- J. Donley3/5
- C. Brown2/5
- C. Hazard2/5
- Ciaron Brown2/5
- Isaac Price2/5
- J. Devenny2/5
- Jamie Donley2/5
- Justin Devenny2/5
- P. McNair2/5
Hungary
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Schafer5/5
- A. Toth5/5
- D. Szoboszlai5/5
- W. Orban5/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- M. Vitalis4/5
- R. Sallai4/5
- B. Toth3/5
- B. Varga3/5
- A. Osvath2/5
- B. Bolla2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Northern Ireland vs Hungary prediction?
Our AI gives Northern Ireland a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Hungary 14%. Northern Ireland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
2-0 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
The probability that both Northern Ireland and Hungary score is 48%. Northern Ireland have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hungary 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
The model expects 2.87 goals (2.06 for Northern Ireland, 0.81 for Hungary). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Northern Ireland vs Hungary played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Northern Ireland and Hungary in?
Northern Ireland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Hungary: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Northern Ireland vs Hungary prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.06 for Northern Ireland, 0.81 for Hungary) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Northern Ireland predictions
- All Hungary predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology