UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Finland vs Belarus: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Finland 0-0 Belarus. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Finland (56%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.
Match analysis
Finland and Belarus met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki. Before kick-off, our model gave Finland a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Belarus 17%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.7%) and 0-0 (12.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Belarus have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Belarus therefore arrive in far better shape than Finland. On average Finland score 2.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Belarus score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Finland sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Belarus 3rd with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Finland, 0 for Belarus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Finland 2-0 Belarus (Jun 9, 2018). In double chance terms, "Finland or draw" stands at 83%, "Belarus or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Finland are favourites for this Finland v Belarus, with a 56% win probability from our model. In the table, Finland (1st, 3 pts) host Belarus (3rd, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Finland – Belarus. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Finland 1-0 Belarus | 17.6% |
| Finland 2-0 Belarus | 12.7% |
| Finland 0-0 Belarus | 12.2% |
| Finland 1-1 Belarus | 11.6% |
| Finland 2-1 Belarus | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.44 expected goals for Finland and 0.66 for Belarus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Finland keep a clean sheet in 52% of scenarios, Belarus in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Finland expected goals | 1.44 |
| Belarus expected goals | 0.66 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Finland clean sheet | 52% |
| Belarus clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 7-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Albania · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Belarus | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2018 | Finland 2-0 Belarus | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Finland
No absences reported.
Belarus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Walta5/5
- V. Koski5/5
- A. Markhiev4/5
- A. Suhonen4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo4/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- N. Alho3/5
- N. Skytta3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- O. Antman2/5
- S. Miettinen2/5
Belarus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Ebong5/5
- Z. Volkov5/5
- A. Shumansky4/5
- K. Pechenin4/5
- V. Gromyko4/5
- E. Yablonskiy3/5
- F. Lapoukhov3/5
- V. Kalinin3/5
- A. Kontsevoy2/5
- A. Selyava2/5
- G. Barkovskiy2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- San Marino 0-3 AlbaniaSep 29, 2026
- Scotland 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia 2-1 KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Spain 4-1 CroatiaSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia 2-0 North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
- Bulgaria 0-0 EstoniaSep 29, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-3 IcelandSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Finland vs Belarus prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Finland a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Belarus 17%. Finland are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Finland vs Belarus?
1-0 (17.6%), followed by 2-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-1 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Finland vs Belarus?
The probability that both Finland and Belarus score is 37%. Finland have a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belarus 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Finland vs Belarus?
The model expects 2.10 goals (1.44 for Finland, 0.66 for Belarus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Finland vs Belarus played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki.
What form are Finland and Belarus in?
Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 7 conceded). Belarus: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Finland and Belarus?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Finland, 0 for Belarus and 0 draws. The most recent ended Finland 2-0 Belarus (Jun 9, 2018).
What was the Finland vs Belarus result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Finland 0-0 Belarus. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Finland (56%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (37%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.
How is the Finland vs Belarus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Finland, 0.66 for Belarus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Finland predictions
- All Belarus predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology