UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Finland vs Belarus prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Finland vs Belarus match is scheduled on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Finland start as favourites with a 49% chance of victory; Belarus are given 26% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Belarus are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Belarus therefore arrive in far better shape than Finland. On average Finland score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Belarus score 1.80 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Belarus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Finland or draw" stands at 74%, "Belarus or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Finland are favourites for this Finland v Belarus, with a 49% win probability from our model. On recent form, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Belarus have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Finland – Belarus. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Finland 1-1 Belarus | 12.0% |
| Finland 1-0 Belarus | 11.2% |
| Finland 2-1 Belarus | 9.4% |
| Finland 2-0 Belarus | 8.8% |
| Finland 0-1 Belarus | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.56 expected goals for Finland and 1.07 for Belarus, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Finland keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Belarus in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Finland expected goals | 1.56 |
| Belarus expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Finland clean sheet | 34% |
| Belarus clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Belarus | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Finland and Belarus: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Finland
No absences reported.
Belarus
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Markhiev4/5
- A. Suhonen4/5
- L. Walta4/5
- V. Koski4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo3/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- N. Alho3/5
- N. Skytta3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- O. Antman2/5
- T. Miettinen2/5
Belarus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Ebong5/5
- A. Shumansky4/5
- E. Yablonskiy4/5
- V. Gromyko4/5
- Z. Volkov4/5
- F. Lapoukhov3/5
- K. Pechenin3/5
- P. Pavlyuchenko2/5
- P. Zabelin2/5
- R. Begunov2/5
- R. Lisakovich2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Northern Ireland – HungarySep 28, 2026
- Moldova – Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- San Marino – AlbaniaSep 29, 2026
- Scotland – SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia – KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Spain – CroatiaSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia – North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
- Bulgaria – EstoniaSep 29, 2026
- Luxembourg – IcelandSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Finland vs Belarus prediction?
Our AI gives Finland a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Belarus 26%. Finland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Finland vs Belarus?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Finland vs Belarus?
The probability that both Finland and Belarus score is 52%. Finland have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belarus 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Finland vs Belarus?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Finland, 1.07 for Belarus). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Finland vs Belarus played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Finland and Belarus in?
Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Belarus: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Finland vs Belarus prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Finland, 1.07 for Belarus) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Finland predictions
- All Belarus predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology