UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Spain vs Croatia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Spain vs Croatia kicks off on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Our model makes Spain clear favourites: a 71% chance of winning, against 17% for the draw and 12% for Croatia. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (9.1%).
Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Spain therefore arrive in far better shape than Croatia. On average Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Croatia score 1.60 and concede 1.60. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 2.04 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.03 for Croatia.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Croatia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 88%, "Croatia or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this Spain v Croatia (71%). On recent form, Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Spain – Croatia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 2-0 Croatia | 10.9% |
| Spain 2-1 Croatia | 9.5% |
| Spain 1-0 Croatia | 9.1% |
| Spain 3-0 Croatia | 8.8% |
| Spain 1-1 Croatia | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.41 expected goals for Spain and 0.87 for Croatia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 64% and "both teams to score" at 53%. Goals look likely in this one. Spain keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Croatia in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Spain expected goals | 2.41 |
| Croatia expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Spain clean sheet | 42% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 2-4 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Croatia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Croatia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Spain
No absences reported.
Croatia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- D. Olmo4/5
- M. Cucurella4/5
- M. Oyarzabal4/5
- P. Cubarsi4/5
- P. Porro4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- F. Ruiz2/5
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livakovic5/5
- I. Perisic5/5
- J. Stanisic5/5
- L. Modric5/5
- J. Sutalo4/5
- M. Baturina4/5
- M. Kovacic4/5
- M. Pongracic4/5
- A. Budimir3/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- M. Pasalic3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Spain vs Croatia prediction?
Our AI gives Spain a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Croatia 12%. Spain are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Croatia?
2-0 (10.9%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.8%) and 1-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Spain vs Croatia?
The probability that both Spain and Croatia score is 53%. Spain have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Croatia 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Croatia?
The model expects 3.28 goals (2.41 for Spain, 0.87 for Croatia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Spain vs Croatia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Spain and Croatia in?
Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded). Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Spain vs Croatia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.41 for Spain, 0.87 for Croatia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Spain predictions
- All Croatia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology