UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Spain vs Croatia: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 67%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
Match analysis
Spain and Croatia met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville. Before kick-off, our model gave Spain a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Croatia 14%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.8%).
Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Spain therefore arrive in far better shape than Croatia. On average Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Croatia score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Spain sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Croatia 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 1.83 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.03 for Croatia.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Spain, 1 for Croatia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 3-0 Croatia (Jun 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 86%, "Croatia or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this Spain v Croatia (67%). On recent form, Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Spain – Croatia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 2-0 Croatia | 11.3% |
| Spain 1-0 Croatia | 10.4% |
| Spain 2-1 Croatia | 9.8% |
| Spain 1-1 Croatia | 9.0% |
| Spain 3-0 Croatia | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.17 expected goals for Spain and 0.87 for Croatia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Goals look likely in this one. Spain keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Croatia in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Spain expected goals | 2.17 |
| Croatia expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Spain clean sheet | 42% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | England · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Czechia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Croatia | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2024 | Spain 3-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Jun 18, 2023 | Croatia 0-0 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 28, 2021 | Croatia 3-5 Spain | Euro Championship |
| Nov 15, 2018 | Croatia 3-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 11, 2018 | Spain 6-0 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Spain
No absences reported.
Croatia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- D. Olmo4/5
- M. Cucurella4/5
- M. Oyarzabal4/5
- P. Cubarsi4/5
- P. Porro4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- F. Ruiz3/5
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livakovic4/5
- I. Perisic4/5
- J. Stanisic4/5
- J. Sutalo4/5
- L. Modric4/5
- M. Baturina4/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- M. Kovacic3/5
- M. Pongracic3/5
- P. Sucic3/5
- A. Budimir2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- San Marino 0-3 AlbaniaSep 29, 2026
- Scotland 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia 2-1 KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia 2-0 North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
- Bulgaria 0-0 EstoniaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Spain vs Croatia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Spain a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Croatia 14%. Spain are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Croatia?
2-0 (11.3%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Spain vs Croatia?
The probability that both Spain and Croatia score is 52%. Spain have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Croatia 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Croatia?
The model expects 3.04 goals (2.17 for Spain, 0.87 for Croatia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Spain vs Croatia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville.
What form are Spain and Croatia in?
Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 3 conceded). Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Croatia?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Spain, 1 for Croatia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 3-0 Croatia (Jun 15, 2024).
What was the Spain vs Croatia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Spain at 67%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
How is the Spain vs Croatia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.17 for Spain, 0.87 for Croatia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Spain predictions
- All Croatia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology