UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Bulgaria vs Estonia: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bulgaria (58%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (13.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): correct.
Match analysis
Bulgaria and Estonia met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv. Before kick-off, our model gave Bulgaria a 58% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Estonia 15%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (19.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.7%) and 0-0 (13.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bulgaria score 2.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Estonia score 0.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Bulgaria sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Estonia 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bulgaria and Estonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Bulgaria or draw" stands at 85%, "Estonia or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Bulgaria to edge Estonia (58% probability). On recent form, Bulgaria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Estonia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bulgaria – Estonia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria 1-0 Estonia | 19.2% |
| Bulgaria 2-0 Estonia | 13.7% |
| Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia | 13.4% |
| Bulgaria 1-1 Estonia | 11.1% |
| Bulgaria 2-1 Estonia | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.43 expected goals for Bulgaria and 0.58 for Estonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Few goals are expected here. Bulgaria keep a clean sheet in 56% of scenarios, Estonia in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.43 |
| Estonia expected goals | 0.58 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 56% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Estonia | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bulgaria and Estonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Estonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Velkovski4/5
- T. Ivanov4/5
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Naumov3/5
- E. Tsenov3/5
- I. Turitsov3/5
- L. Petkov3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- F. Krastev2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hein3/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- K. Palumets3/5
- M. Kuusk3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Kait2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Poom2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- San Marino 0-3 AlbaniaSep 29, 2026
- Scotland 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia 2-1 KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Spain 4-1 CroatiaSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia 2-0 North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bulgaria vs Estonia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bulgaria a 58% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Estonia 15%. Bulgaria are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
1-0 (19.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The probability that both Bulgaria and Estonia score is 34%. Bulgaria have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estonia 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The model expects 2.01 goals (1.43 for Bulgaria, 0.58 for Estonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Bulgaria vs Estonia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv.
What form are Bulgaria and Estonia in?
Bulgaria: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 7 conceded). Estonia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded).
What was the Bulgaria vs Estonia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bulgaria (58%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (13.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): correct.
How is the Bulgaria vs Estonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.43 for Bulgaria, 0.58 for Estonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bulgaria predictions
- All Estonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology