UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Bulgaria vs Estonia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Bulgaria take on Estonia on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Bulgaria start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Estonia are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bulgaria score 3.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Estonia score 1.40 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bulgaria and Estonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Bulgaria or draw" stands at 76%, "Estonia or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Bulgaria to edge Estonia (51% probability). On recent form, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bulgaria – Estonia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria 1-1 Estonia | 11.8% |
| Bulgaria 1-0 Estonia | 11.4% |
| Bulgaria 2-1 Estonia | 9.5% |
| Bulgaria 2-0 Estonia | 9.3% |
| Bulgaria 0-1 Estonia | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Bulgaria and 1.03 for Estonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Bulgaria keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Estonia in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.62 |
| Estonia expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 36% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bulgaria and Estonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Estonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Velkovski3/5
- F. Krastev3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- D. Mitov2/5
- D. Naumov2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
- H. Petrov2/5
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hein2/5
- K. Kait2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Kuusk2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
- T. Tammik2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Bulgaria vs Estonia prediction?
Our AI gives Bulgaria a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estonia 24%. Bulgaria are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The probability that both Bulgaria and Estonia score is 52%. Bulgaria have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estonia 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.62 for Bulgaria, 1.03 for Estonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Bulgaria vs Estonia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Bulgaria and Estonia in?
Bulgaria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded). Estonia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Bulgaria vs Estonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Bulgaria, 1.03 for Estonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bulgaria predictions
- All Estonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology