UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Türkiye vs Italy: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Türkiye 1-4 Italy. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Türkiye (67%), while victory for Italy was rated at only 15%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
Match analysis
Türkiye vs Italy was played on Monday, September 28, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa. Before kick-off, our model gave Türkiye a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Italy 15%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.6%), ahead of 2-0 (8.9%) and 1-1 (7.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Italy. On average Türkiye score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Italy score 1.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Türkiye sit 3rd with 0 points from 1 games, Italy 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Türkiye, 2 for Italy and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024). In double chance terms, "Türkiye or draw" stands at 85%, "Italy or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Türkiye are tipped by our AI model in this Türkiye v Italy (67%). On recent form, Türkiye have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Türkiye – Italy. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Türkiye 2-1 Italy | 9.6% |
| Türkiye 2-0 Italy | 8.9% |
| Türkiye 1-1 Italy | 7.9% |
| Türkiye 3-1 Italy | 7.7% |
| Türkiye 1-0 Italy | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.49 goals in total (2.42 for Türkiye, 1.07 for Italy): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 60%. Everything points to an open game. Türkiye keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Italy in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Türkiye expected goals | 2.42 |
| Italy expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 34% |
| Italy clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | France · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Italy | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | International Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Türkiye
No absences reported.
Italy
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- M. Demiral3/5
- O. Kokcu3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- E. Elmali2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
- H. Calhanoglu2/5
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Kean3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- R. Calafiori3/5
- S. Tonali3/5
- A. Bastoni2/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
- F. C. Chiarodia2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium 0-1 FranceSep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Türkiye vs Italy prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Türkiye a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Italy 15%. Türkiye are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Türkiye vs Italy?
2-1 (9.6%), followed by 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.7%) and 1-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
The probability that both Türkiye and Italy score is 60%. Türkiye have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Italy 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Türkiye vs Italy?
The model expects 3.49 goals (2.42 for Türkiye, 1.07 for Italy). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Türkiye vs Italy played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa.
What form are Türkiye and Italy in?
Türkiye: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and Italy?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Türkiye, 2 for Italy and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024).
What was the Türkiye vs Italy result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Türkiye 1-4 Italy. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Türkiye (67%), while victory for Italy was rated at only 15%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.4%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (68%): correct.
How is the Türkiye vs Italy prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.42 for Türkiye, 1.07 for Italy) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Türkiye predictions
- All Italy predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology