UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Türkiye vs Italy prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Türkiye vs Italy kicks off on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). With a 69% win probability, Türkiye go in as strong favourites against Italy (14%), with the draw rated at 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (9.4%), ahead of 2-0 (9.1%) and 3-1 (7.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Türkiye score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Italy score 1.20 and concede 1.00.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Türkiye, 2 for Italy and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024). In double chance terms, "Türkiye or draw" stands at 86%, "Italy or draw" at 31% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Türkiye are tipped by our AI model in this Türkiye v Italy (69%). On recent form, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Türkiye – Italy. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Türkiye 2-1 Italy | 9.4% |
| Türkiye 2-0 Italy | 9.1% |
| Türkiye 3-1 Italy | 7.9% |
| Türkiye 3-0 Italy | 7.6% |
| Türkiye 1-1 Italy | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.54 goals in total (2.50 for Türkiye, 1.04 for Italy): over 2.5 goals has a 69% probability and both teams to score 59%. Everything points to an open game. Türkiye keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Italy in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Türkiye expected goals | 2.50 |
| Italy expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 35% |
| Italy clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | International Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Türkiye
No absences reported.
Italy
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- E. Elmali3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- O. Kabak3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- D. Gul2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- F. Dimarco3/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Locatelli3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- M. Retegui3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Türkiye vs Italy prediction?
Our AI gives Türkiye a 69% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Italy 14%. Türkiye are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Türkiye vs Italy?
2-1 (9.4%), followed by 2-0 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (7.6%) and 1-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
The probability that both Türkiye and Italy score is 59%. Türkiye have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Italy 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Türkiye vs Italy?
The model expects 3.54 goals (2.50 for Türkiye, 1.04 for Italy). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Türkiye vs Italy played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Türkiye and Italy in?
Türkiye: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and Italy?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Türkiye, 2 for Italy and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024).
How is the Türkiye vs Italy prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.50 for Türkiye, 1.04 for Italy) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Türkiye predictions
- All Italy predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology