UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Belgium vs France prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Belgium vs France match is scheduled on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Belgium 43%, France 37% and the draw 20%. The most likely correct score is 2-2 (7.3%), ahead of 2-1 (7.2%) and 1-2 (6.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; France score 2.00 and concede 1.60. Over their recent games, Belgium have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.30 for France.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belgium, 5 for France and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "Belgium or draw" stands at 63%, "France or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Belgium and France: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while France have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 79%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belgium – France. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belgium 2-2 France | 7.3% |
| Belgium 2-1 France | 7.2% |
| Belgium 1-2 France | 6.7% |
| Belgium 1-1 France | 6.6% |
| Belgium 3-2 France | 5.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.20 goals in total (2.17 for Belgium, 2.03 for France): over 2.5 goals has a 79% probability and both teams to score 77%. Everything points to an open game. Belgium keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, France in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belgium expected goals | 2.17 |
| France expected goals | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 13% |
| France clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Belgium 1-2 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | France 2-0 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | France 1-0 Belgium | Euro Championship |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Belgium 2-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2018 | France 1-0 Belgium | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Belgium
No absences reported.
France
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele4/5
- L. Trossard4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- K. De Bruyne3/5
- T. Castagne3/5
- A. Theate2/5
- H. Vanaken2/5
- J. Doku2/5
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rabiot4/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- J. Kounde4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- L. Digne4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- O. Dembele4/5
- W. Saliba4/5
- B. Barcola3/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Germany – GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Armenia – MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia – UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia – CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden – PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland – HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye – ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania – Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Finland – BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova – Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Belgium vs France prediction?
Our AI gives Belgium a 43% chance of winning, the draw 20% and France 37%. Belgium are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Belgium vs France?
2-2 (7.3%), followed by 2-1 (7.2%), 1-2 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.6%) and 3-2 (5.3%).
Will both teams score in Belgium vs France?
The probability that both Belgium and France score is 77%. Belgium have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Belgium vs France?
The model expects 4.20 goals (2.17 for Belgium, 2.03 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 79%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Belgium vs France played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Belgium and France in?
Belgium: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded). France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Belgium and France?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belgium, 5 for France and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024).
How is the Belgium vs France prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.17 for Belgium, 2.03 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belgium predictions
- All France predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology