UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Belgium vs France: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Belgium 0-1 France. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Belgium (49%), while victory for France was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
Match analysis
Belgium vs France was played on Monday, September 28, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Roi Baudouin, Brussels. Before kick-off, our model gave Belgium a 49% chance of winning, the draw 20% and France 31%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (7.9%), ahead of 2-2 (7.1%) and 1-1 (7.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Belgium score 3.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; France score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Belgium sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, France 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Belgium have averaged 1.96 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.08 for France.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belgium, 5 for France and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "Belgium or draw" stands at 69%, "France or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Belgium to edge France (49% probability). In the table, Belgium (1st, 3 pts) host France (2nd, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belgium – France. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belgium 2-1 France | 7.9% |
| Belgium 2-2 France | 7.1% |
| Belgium 1-1 France | 7.0% |
| Belgium 1-2 France | 6.3% |
| Belgium 3-1 France | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.07 goals in total (2.26 for Belgium, 1.81 for France): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 75%. Everything points to an open game. Belgium keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, France in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belgium expected goals | 2.26 |
| France expected goals | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 16% |
| France clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Italy · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Senegal · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| France | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Belgium 1-2 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | France 2-0 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | France 1-0 Belgium | Euro Championship |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Belgium 2-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2018 | France 1-0 Belgium | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
Belgium
No absences reported.
France
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele5/5
- C. De Ketelaere5/5
- M. De Cuyper5/5
- T. Castagne5/5
- K. De Bruyne4/5
- L. Trossard4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- H. Vanaken3/5
- J. Doku3/5
- N. Ngoy3/5
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rabiot5/5
- M. Maignan5/5
- M. Olise5/5
- D. Upamecano4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- J. Kounde3/5
- L. Digne3/5
- O. Dembele3/5
- W. Saliba3/5
- B. Barcola2/5
- D. Doue2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Belgium vs France prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Belgium a 49% chance of winning, the draw 20% and France 31%. Belgium are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Belgium vs France?
2-1 (7.9%), followed by 2-2 (7.1%), 1-1 (7.0%), 1-2 (6.3%) and 3-1 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Belgium vs France?
The probability that both Belgium and France score is 75%. Belgium have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, France 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Belgium vs France?
The model expects 4.07 goals (2.26 for Belgium, 1.81 for France). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Belgium vs France played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Roi Baudouin, Brussels.
What form are Belgium and France in?
Belgium: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded). France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Belgium and France?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belgium, 5 for France and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024).
What was the Belgium vs France result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Belgium 0-1 France. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Belgium (49%), while victory for France was rated at only 31%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (75%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
How is the Belgium vs France prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.26 for Belgium, 1.81 for France) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belgium predictions
- All France predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology