UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden vs Poland: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Sweden vs Poland was played on Monday, September 28, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna. Before kick-off, our model gave Sweden a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Poland 27%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sweden have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Poland have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Poland score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Sweden sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Poland 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sweden 3-2 Poland (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sweden or draw" stands at 73%, "Poland or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Sweden are favourites for this Sweden v Poland, with a 46% win probability from our model. In the table, Sweden (1st, 3 pts) host Poland (3rd, 1 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sweden – Poland. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 1-1 Poland | 12.5% |
| Sweden 1-0 Poland | 11.9% |
| Sweden 2-1 Poland | 9.1% |
| Sweden 2-0 Poland | 8.6% |
| Sweden 0-1 Poland | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.50 goals in total (1.45 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 50%. Sweden keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Poland in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sweden expected goals | 1.45 |
| Poland expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 35% |
| Poland clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Poland | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Sweden
No absences reported.
Poland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- G. Gudmundsson4/5
- G. Lagerbielke4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- E. Stroud3/5
- I. Hien3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
- B. Nygren2/5
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Lewandowski5/5
- J. Bednarek4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- P. Zielinski4/5
- S. Szymanski4/5
- J. Kaminski3/5
- K. Grabara3/5
- M. Cash3/5
- N. Zalewski3/5
- P. Wisniewski3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 28, 2026
- Belgium 0-1 FranceSep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sweden vs Poland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sweden a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Poland 27%. Sweden are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Sweden vs Poland?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Poland?
The probability that both Sweden and Poland score is 50%. Sweden have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Poland 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Sweden vs Poland?
The model expects 2.50 goals (1.45 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Sweden vs Poland played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna.
What form are Sweden and Poland in?
Sweden: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded). Poland: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sweden and Poland?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Sweden, 1 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sweden 3-2 Poland (Mar 31, 2026).
What was the Sweden vs Poland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Sweden vs Poland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.45 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sweden predictions
- All Poland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology