UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden vs Poland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Sweden take on Poland on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Sweden 34%, Poland 36% and the draw 30%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (13.5%), ahead of 1-1 (13.5%) and 0-0 (12.9%).
Sweden have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Poland score 1.80 and concede 2.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sweden and Poland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Sweden or draw" stands at 64%, "Poland or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Sweden and Poland meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 30%). On recent form, Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sweden – Poland. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden 0-1 Poland | 13.5% |
| Sweden 1-1 Poland | 13.5% |
| Sweden 0-0 Poland | 12.9% |
| Sweden 1-0 Poland | 12.9% |
| Sweden 0-2 Poland | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.05 goals in total (1.00 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland): over 2.5 goals has a 34% probability and both teams to score 41%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Sweden keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Poland in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sweden expected goals | 1.00 |
| Poland expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 35% |
| Poland clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Poland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Sweden and Poland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Sweden
No absences reported.
Poland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- G. Gudmundsson5/5
- G. Lagerbielke5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- I. Hien4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- B. Nygren3/5
- K. Nordfeldt3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Zielinski5/5
- R. Lewandowski5/5
- J. Kaminski4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- N. Zalewski4/5
- P. Wisniewski4/5
- S. Szymanski4/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- K. Grabara3/5
- T. Kedziora3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Sweden vs Poland prediction?
Our AI gives Sweden a 34% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Poland 36%. Poland are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sweden vs Poland?
0-1 (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.9%) and 0-2 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Poland?
The probability that both Sweden and Poland score is 41%. Sweden have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Poland 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Sweden vs Poland?
The model expects 2.05 goals (1.00 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 61%, over 2.5 goals 34%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Sweden vs Poland played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Sweden and Poland in?
Sweden: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded). Poland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Sweden vs Poland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Sweden, 1.05 for Poland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sweden predictions
- All Poland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology