UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: 2-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Romania (59%), while victory for Bosnia & Herzegovina was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
Match analysis
Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina was played on Monday, September 28, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Arena Națională, Bucharest. Before kick-off, our model gave Romania a 59% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 14%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (19.9%), ahead of 0-0 (14.1%) and 2-0 (14.0%).
Romania have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Bosnia & Herzegovina have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Romania score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Romania sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Bosnia & Herzegovina 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 3 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Romania (Nov 15, 2025). In double chance terms, "Romania or draw" stands at 86%, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Romania are favourites for this Romania v Bosnia & Herzegovina, with a 59% win probability from our model. On recent form, Romania have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Romania 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 19.9% |
| Romania 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 14.1% |
| Romania 2-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 14.0% |
| Romania 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 10.9% |
| Romania 0-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.96 goals in total (1.41 for Romania, 0.55 for Bosnia & Herzegovina): over 2.5 goals has a 31% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Romania keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Bosnia & Herzegovina in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Romania expected goals | 1.41 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals | 0.55 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Romania clean sheet | 58% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sweden · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 2, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Romania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 21, 2025 | Romania 0-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 26, 2022 | Romania 4-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2022 | Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Romania | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Romania
No absences reported.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Man3/5
- I. Hagi3/5
- I. Radu3/5
- N. Bancu3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- R. Marin3/5
- V. Dragomir3/5
- A. Burca2/5
- A. Ratiu2/5
- D. Birligea2/5
- L. Munteanu2/5
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Demirovic4/5
- N. Katic4/5
- N. Vasilj4/5
- S. Kolasinac4/5
- A. Dedic3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic3/5
- E. Dzeko3/5
- I. Sunjic3/5
- K. Alajbegovic3/5
- T. Muharemovic3/5
- A. Memic2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Germany 0-1 GreeceSep 27, 2026
- Armenia 2-3 MontenegroSep 28, 2026
- Georgia 0-0 UkraineSep 28, 2026
- Latvia 0-0 CyprusSep 28, 2026
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Belgium 0-1 FranceSep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Romania a 59% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 14%. Romania are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
1-0 (19.9%), followed by 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (10.9%) and 0-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The probability that both Romania and Bosnia & Herzegovina score is 32%. Romania have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bosnia & Herzegovina 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
The model expects 1.96 goals (1.41 for Romania, 0.55 for Bosnia & Herzegovina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Arena Națională, Bucharest.
What form are Romania and Bosnia & Herzegovina in?
Romania: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Romania and Bosnia & Herzegovina?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 3 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0 draws. The most recent ended Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Romania (Nov 15, 2025).
What was the Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Romania (59%), while victory for Bosnia & Herzegovina was rated at only 14%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
How is the Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.41 for Romania, 0.55 for Bosnia & Herzegovina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Romania predictions
- All Bosnia & Herzegovina predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology