UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
San Marino vs Albania prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: San Marino vs Albania kicks off on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to San Marino (52%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Albania win (23%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.7%), ahead of 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 13. Albania have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average San Marino score 0.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Albania score 0.20 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between San Marino and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "San Marino or draw" stands at 77%, "Albania or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : San Marino are favourites for this San Marino v Albania, with a 52% win probability from our model. On recent form, San Marino are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Albania are struggling (5 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as San Marino – Albania. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| San Marino 1-1 Albania | 11.7% |
| San Marino 1-0 Albania | 11.6% |
| San Marino 2-1 Albania | 9.6% |
| San Marino 2-0 Albania | 9.5% |
| San Marino 0-1 Albania | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.64 for San Marino, 1.01 for Albania): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 51%. San Marino keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Albania in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| San Marino expected goals | 1.64 |
| Albania expected goals | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 36% |
| Albania clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | England · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Albania | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between San Marino and Albania: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
San Marino
No absences reported.
Albania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Colombo5/5
- N. Giacopetti5/5
- A. Tosi4/5
- L. Capicchioni4/5
- M. Cevoli4/5
- N. Nanni4/5
- A. Golinucci3/5
- F. Fabbri3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- M. Pasolini3/5
- S. Pancotti3/5
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hoxha5/5
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- E. Hysaj5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- Q. Laci5/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- M. Uzuni4/5
- N. Bajrami3/5
- T. Strakosha3/5
- Y. Ramadani3/5
- A. Ajeti2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the San Marino vs Albania prediction?
Our AI gives San Marino a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Albania 23%. San Marino are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for San Marino vs Albania?
1-1 (11.7%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in San Marino vs Albania?
The probability that both San Marino and Albania score is 51%. San Marino have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Albania 19%.
How many goals should we expect in San Marino vs Albania?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.64 for San Marino, 1.01 for Albania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is San Marino vs Albania played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are San Marino and Albania in?
San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 13 conceded). Albania: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the San Marino vs Albania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for San Marino, 1.01 for Albania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All San Marino predictions
- All Albania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology