UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
San Marino vs Albania: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: San Marino 0-3 Albania. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Albania was the model's favourite outcome (94%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 0-4. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.
Match analysis
San Marino vs Albania was played on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: San Marino Stadium, Serravalle. Before kick-off, our model gave San Marino a 2% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Albania 94%. The most likely correct score is 0-4 (9.5%), ahead of 0-5 (8.6%) and 0-3 (8.5%).
San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 13. Albania have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average San Marino score 0.60 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Albania score 0.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, San Marino sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Albania 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for San Marino, 2 for Albania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Albania 5-0 San Marino (Sep 8, 2021). In double chance terms, "San Marino or draw" stands at 6%, "Albania or draw" at 98% and "no draw" at 96%.
In short : Albania are favourites for this San Marino v Albania, with a 94% win probability from our model. On recent form, San Marino are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Albania are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-4.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as San Marino – Albania. 0-4 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| San Marino 0-4 Albania | 9.5% |
| San Marino 0-5 Albania | 8.6% |
| San Marino 0-3 Albania | 8.5% |
| San Marino 1-4 Albania | 6.6% |
| San Marino 0-6 Albania | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 5.19 goals in total (0.69 for San Marino, 4.50 for Albania): over 2.5 goals has a 89% probability and both teams to score 49%. Everything points to an open game. San Marino keep a clean sheet in 1% of scenarios, Albania in 50%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| San Marino expected goals | 0.69 |
| Albania expected goals | 4.50 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 76% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 1% |
| Albania clean sheet | 50% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Finland · UEFA Nations League | 0-7 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Albania | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2021 | Albania 5-0 San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 31, 2021 | San Marino 0-2 Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
San Marino
No absences reported.
Albania
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Tosi5/5
- E. Colombo5/5
- L. Capicchioni5/5
- M. Cevoli5/5
- N. Giacopetti5/5
- N. Nanni5/5
- M. Pasolini4/5
- A. Golinucci3/5
- F. Fabbri3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- S. Zannoni3/5
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hoxha5/5
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- E. Hysaj5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- Q. Laci4/5
- M. Uzuni3/5
- Y. Ramadani3/5
- A. Ajeti2/5
- A. Broja2/5
- A. Sherri2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Türkiye 1-4 ItalySep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- Scotland 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia 2-1 KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Spain 4-1 CroatiaSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia 2-0 North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
- Bulgaria 0-0 EstoniaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the San Marino vs Albania prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave San Marino a 2% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Albania 94%. Albania are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for San Marino vs Albania?
0-4 (9.5%), followed by 0-5 (8.6%), 0-3 (8.5%), 1-4 (6.6%) and 0-6 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in San Marino vs Albania?
The probability that both San Marino and Albania score is 49%. San Marino have a 1% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Albania 50%.
How many goals should we expect in San Marino vs Albania?
The model expects 5.19 goals (0.69 for San Marino, 4.50 for Albania). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 89%, over 3.5 goals 76%.
When and where is San Marino vs Albania played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: San Marino Stadium, Serravalle.
What form are San Marino and Albania in?
San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 13 conceded). Albania: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between San Marino and Albania?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for San Marino, 2 for Albania and 0 draws. The most recent ended Albania 5-0 San Marino (Sep 8, 2021).
What was the San Marino vs Albania result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: San Marino 0-3 Albania. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Albania was the model's favourite outcome (94%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 0-4. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (89%): correct.
How is the San Marino vs Albania prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.69 for San Marino, 4.50 for Albania) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All San Marino predictions
- All Albania predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology