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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Slovenia vs North Macedonia: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

SloveniaSlovenia2 – 0North MacedoniaNorth Macedonia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Slovenia at 59%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.

Match analysis

Slovenia and North Macedonia met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana. Before kick-off, our model gave Slovenia a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and North Macedonia 15%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (18.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%) and 0-0 (12.1%).

Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 6. North Macedonia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 0 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Slovenia score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; North Macedonia score 0.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Slovenia sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, North Macedonia 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Slovenia, 1 for North Macedonia and 2 draws. The most recent ended North Macedonia 1-1 Slovenia (Jun 1, 2021). In double chance terms, "Slovenia or draw" stands at 85%, "North Macedonia or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Slovenia are tipped by our AI model in this Slovenia v North Macedonia (59%). In the table, Slovenia (2nd, 1 pts) host North Macedonia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

59%
Slovenia (Win)
26%
Draw
15%
North Macedonia (Win)

Double chance

85%
Slovenia or draw
41%
North Macedonia or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Slovenia – North Macedonia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (18.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Slovenia 1-0 North Macedonia18.2%
Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia13.6%
Slovenia 0-0 North Macedonia12.1%
Slovenia 1-1 North Macedonia11.1%
Slovenia 2-1 North Macedonia8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.50 expected goals for Slovenia and 0.61 for North Macedonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 36%. Few goals are expected here. Slovenia keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, North Macedonia in 22%.

Probability
Slovenia expected goals1.50
North Macedonia expected goals0.61
Both teams to score36%
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Slovenia clean sheet54%
North Macedonia clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Slovenia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Scotland · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Jun 7, 2026Croatia · International Friendlies1-2L
Jun 4, 2026Cyprus · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Montenegro · International Friendlies3-2W
Mar 28, 2026Hungary · International Friendlies0-1L

North Macedonia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 26, 2026Switzerland · UEFA Nations League0-3L
Jun 1, 2026Türkiye · International Friendlies0-4L
May 29, 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 31, 2026Ireland · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 26, 2026Denmark · World Cup - Qualification Europe0-4L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Slovenia211
North Macedonia401

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 1, 2021North Macedonia 1-1 SloveniaInternational Friendlies
Oct 10, 2019North Macedonia 2-1 SloveniaEuro Championship
Mar 24, 2019Slovenia 1-1 North MacedoniaEuro Championship

Out and doubtful

Slovenia

No absences reported.

North Macedonia

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Slovenia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Bijol5/5
  • D. Sturm4/5
  • Z. Vipotnik4/5
  • A. Gnezda Cerin3/5
  • E. Janza3/5
  • J. Oblak3/5
  • M. Ratnik3/5
  • V. Drkusic3/5
  • D. Brekalo2/5
  • I. Vekic2/5
  • T. Elsnik2/5

North Macedonia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Elmas5/5
  • G. Zajkov5/5
  • S. Dimitrievski5/5
  • E. Rastoder4/5
  • S. Herrera4/5
  • B. Miovski3/5
  • D. Velkovski3/5
  • E. Bardhi3/5
  • J. Atanasov3/5
  • V. Musliu3/5
  • D. Churlinov2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Slovenia a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and North Macedonia 15%. Slovenia are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Slovenia vs North Macedonia?

1-0 (18.2%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-1 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?

The probability that both Slovenia and North Macedonia score is 36%. Slovenia have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, North Macedonia 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?

The model expects 2.11 goals (1.50 for Slovenia, 0.61 for North Macedonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.

When and where is Slovenia vs North Macedonia played?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana.

What form are Slovenia and North Macedonia in?

Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). North Macedonia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (0 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Slovenia and North Macedonia?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Slovenia, 1 for North Macedonia and 2 draws. The most recent ended North Macedonia 1-1 Slovenia (Jun 1, 2021).

What was the Slovenia vs North Macedonia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Slovenia at 59%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.6%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): correct.

How is the Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Slovenia, 0.61 for North Macedonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained