UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Slovenia take on North Macedonia on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Slovenia start as favourites with a 54% chance of victory; North Macedonia are given 22% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.8%).
Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. North Macedonia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 15. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Slovenia score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; North Macedonia score 0.20 and concede 3.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Slovenia and North Macedonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Slovenia or draw" stands at 78%, "North Macedonia or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Slovenia are tipped by our AI model in this Slovenia v North Macedonia (54%). On recent form, Slovenia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while North Macedonia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Slovenia – North Macedonia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Slovenia 1-0 North Macedonia | 11.6% |
| Slovenia 1-1 North Macedonia | 11.5% |
| Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia | 9.8% |
| Slovenia 2-1 North Macedonia | 9.7% |
| Slovenia 0-0 North Macedonia | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.68 expected goals for Slovenia and 0.99 for North Macedonia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Slovenia keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, North Macedonia in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Slovenia expected goals | 1.68 |
| North Macedonia expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 37% |
| North Macedonia clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
North Macedonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Türkiye · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| May 29, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ireland · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Denmark · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-4 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Wales · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| North Macedonia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Slovenia and North Macedonia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Slovenia
No absences reported.
North Macedonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Sturm5/5
- J. Bijol5/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin4/5
- E. Janza4/5
- V. Drkusic4/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- I. Vekic3/5
- M. Ratnik3/5
- T. Elsnik3/5
- Z. Karnicnik3/5
- A. Sporar2/5
North Macedonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Elmas5/5
- G. Zajkov5/5
- S. Dimitrievski5/5
- D. Velkovski4/5
- B. Miovski3/5
- E. Bardhi3/5
- E. Rastoder3/5
- J. Atanasov3/5
- S. Herrera3/5
- A. Stojcevski2/5
- D. Churlinov2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Scotland – SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction?
Our AI gives Slovenia a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and North Macedonia 22%. Slovenia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
The probability that both Slovenia and North Macedonia score is 51%. Slovenia have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, North Macedonia 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.68 for Slovenia, 0.99 for North Macedonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Slovenia vs North Macedonia played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Slovenia and North Macedonia in?
Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). North Macedonia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 15 conceded).
How is the Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.68 for Slovenia, 0.99 for North Macedonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Slovenia predictions
- All North Macedonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology