UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Luxembourg vs Iceland kicks off on Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Luxembourg start as favourites with a 56% chance of victory; Iceland are given 20% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Luxembourg therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Iceland score 0.60 and concede 2.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Luxembourg and Iceland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Luxembourg or draw" stands at 80%, "Iceland or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Luxembourg are tipped by our AI model in this Luxembourg v Iceland (56%). On recent form, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Iceland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Luxembourg – Iceland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg 1-0 Iceland | 11.8% |
| Luxembourg 1-1 Iceland | 11.2% |
| Luxembourg 2-0 Iceland | 10.3% |
| Luxembourg 2-1 Iceland | 9.8% |
| Luxembourg 0-0 Iceland | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.75 expected goals for Luxembourg and 0.95 for Iceland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Luxembourg keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Iceland in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.75 |
| Iceland expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 39% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Iceland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Luxembourg and Iceland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Iceland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Martins3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- A. Dardari2/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Aiman Dardari2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- G. Sigurdsson2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Slovakia – KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction?
Our AI gives Luxembourg a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 20%. Luxembourg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Luxembourg vs Iceland?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The probability that both Luxembourg and Iceland score is 51%. Luxembourg have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Iceland 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.75 for Luxembourg, 0.95 for Iceland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Luxembourg vs Iceland played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Luxembourg and Iceland in?
Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded). Iceland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded).
How is the Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.75 for Luxembourg, 0.95 for Iceland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Luxembourg predictions
- All Iceland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology