UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Luxembourg vs Iceland: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Iceland at 43%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.6%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
Match analysis
Luxembourg and Iceland met on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Before kick-off, our model gave Luxembourg a 27% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Iceland 43%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (12.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. Luxembourg therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Luxembourg score 1.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Iceland score 0.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Luxembourg sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Iceland 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Luxembourg, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg (Oct 13, 2023). In double chance terms, "Luxembourg or draw" stands at 57%, "Iceland or draw" at 73% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Iceland are tipped by our AI model in this Luxembourg v Iceland (43%). On recent form, Luxembourg are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Iceland have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Luxembourg – Iceland. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg 0-1 Iceland | 14.7% |
| Luxembourg 1-1 Iceland | 13.2% |
| Luxembourg 0-0 Iceland | 12.1% |
| Luxembourg 1-0 Iceland | 10.9% |
| Luxembourg 0-2 Iceland | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.90 expected goals for Luxembourg and 1.21 for Iceland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 35% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Luxembourg keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Iceland in 41%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg expected goals | 0.90 |
| Iceland expected goals | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 30% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 41% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Iceland | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 8, 2023 | Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Out and doubtful
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Iceland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Aiman Dardari3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- V. Thill3/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- C. Martins2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
- F. Bohnert2/5
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Haraldsson3/5
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- H. R. Valdimarsson2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sweden 3-1 PolandSep 28, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 HungarySep 28, 2026
- Finland 0-0 BelarusSep 29, 2026
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe IslandsSep 29, 2026
- San Marino 0-3 AlbaniaSep 29, 2026
- Scotland 0-3 SwitzerlandSep 29, 2026
- Slovakia 2-1 KazakhstanSep 29, 2026
- Spain 4-1 CroatiaSep 29, 2026
- Slovenia 2-0 North MacedoniaSep 29, 2026
- Bulgaria 0-0 EstoniaSep 29, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Luxembourg a 27% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Iceland 43%. Iceland are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Luxembourg vs Iceland?
0-1 (14.7%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.9%) and 0-2 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The probability that both Luxembourg and Iceland score is 42%. Luxembourg have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Iceland 41%.
How many goals should we expect in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
The model expects 2.11 goals (0.90 for Luxembourg, 1.21 for Iceland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Luxembourg vs Iceland played?
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
What form are Luxembourg and Iceland in?
Luxembourg: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 2 conceded). Iceland: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Luxembourg and Iceland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Luxembourg, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg (Oct 13, 2023).
What was the Luxembourg vs Iceland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Iceland at 43%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (3.6%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (35%): missed.
How is the Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.90 for Luxembourg, 1.21 for Iceland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Luxembourg predictions
- All Iceland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology